Daulton Varsho

CF · LHB · RHP · HOU

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

ATL

Starter

Martín Pérez (LHP)

Stadium

Daikin Park

Model HR%

13.0%

Model Hits%

71.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+12.4% edgemodel 71% · grade S

Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +21.8% lift over 122 games · strong vs the Changeup (30% usage, .583 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	71%	+12.4%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	13%	+2.5%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Daulton Varsho, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	12-7	63%	+35.6%
A	9-7	56%	+36.7%
B	5-6	45%	-19.8%

Combined 26-20 · n=46 · ROI +22.7% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 50%

Matchup

Daulton Varsho (LHB) vs Martín Pérez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Martín Pérez LHP · season · 138.4 IP · 595 BF

BAA

.225

wOBA

.332

SLG

.353

ISO

.128

WHIP

1.33

HR/9

0.85

BB%

10.9%

17.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.3%

HH%

36.2%

FB%

28.7%

HR/FB%

12.2%

Daulton Varsho hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	111-502	.221	.359	.137	13	7.9%	21.7%
vs LHP	30-132	.227	.364	.136	3	6.4%	20.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Martín Pérez's arsenal × how Daulton Varsho hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Martín Pérez throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPChangeup	30%	82.5	30%	.342
Sinker	30%	89.7	8%	.376
TOPCutter	25%	86.1	14%	.471
Curveball	9%	76.8	24%	.385
Four-Seam	5%	90.0	11%	.285

Daulton Varsho vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPChangeup	163	23%	.583	89.8
Sinker	284	16%	.332	89.8
TOPCutter	179	24%	.420	83.3
Curveball	169	13%	.274	82.1
Four-Seam	755	24%	.452	91.9

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.4

Our model71% OVER+12.4% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6

Plate Appearancesavg 3.6

Hitsavg 0.4

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 0.7

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	10%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	71%	+12.4%	-143	+3.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	S	30%	+9.9%	+400	-0.8	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	13%	+2.5%	+850	+1.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+205	+4.8	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	53%	—	+130	-2.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	15%	—	+700	+1.4	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	38%	—	+200	+0.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=545 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	111-502	.221	.359	.137	24	3	13	43	21.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	30-132	.227	.364	.136	7	1	3	9	20.5%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	81-370	.219	.357	.138	17	2	10	34	22.2%
Last 15 days recent form	8-45	.178	.333	.156	1	0	2	1	24.4%
vs ATL tonight's opponent (full roster)	4-38	.105	.132	.026	1	0	0	4	47.4%
@ Daikin Park tonight's stadium	1397-6650	.210	.386	.175	36	186	253	462	22.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.282

wOBA0.287

delta+0.005 hot

n=543 PA

Spray chart

630 balls in play since 2025· wind 2 mph cross-wind

Balls in play630

HR rate5.6%

Hard-hit (95+)38%

Avg exit velo86.8 mph

Ground ball35%

Line drive22%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+21.8%significant

n=284 games · 22/122 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

0 / 0HELPING · IN PLAY

No DNA factors in play tonight

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+48%

44 yes / 240 no · 45 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+22%

122 yes / 162 no · 45 HRs

// 10 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−19%

36 yes / 248 no · 45 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

+12%

20 yes / 263 no · 45 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−11%

198 yes / 85 no · 45 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−9%

96 yes / 188 no · 45 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−6%

93 yes / 191 no · 45 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

149 yes / 135 no · 45 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	3	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-17	4	1	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	1	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-15	3	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-13	2	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-09-12	4	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-11	4	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-10	4	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Daulton Varsho across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.