Lars Nootbaar

DH · LHB · RHP · ARI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

NYY

Starter

Will Warren (RHP)

Stadium

Chase Field

Model HR%

13.1%

Model Hits%

65.0%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+5.7% edgemodel 13% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (42% usage, .387 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	13%	+5.7%	10%	CAUTION
Hits	OVER 1.5	25%	+0.2%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Lars Nootbaar, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	6-11	35%	-35.9%
A	5-9	36%	-32.9%
B	2-4	33%	-32.0%

Combined 13-24 · n=37 · ROI -34.2% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 25%

Matchup

Lars Nootbaar (LHB) vs Will Warren RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Will Warren RHP · season · 156.7 IP · 674 BF

BAA

.249

wOBA

.334

SLG

.421

ISO

.172

WHIP

1.34

HR/9

1.21

BB%

8.3%

23.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.2%

HH%

46.3%

FB%

29.1%

HR/FB%

17.9%

Lars Nootbaar hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	61-263	.232	.369	.137	7	13.8%	23.6%
vs RHP	56-221	.253	.403	.149	6	13.7%	22.6%

Pitch-type matchup

Will Warren's arsenal × how Lars Nootbaar hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Will Warren throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	42%	93.4	21%	.382
Sinker	22%	93.3	15%	.368
Sweeper	21%	83.2	28%	.443
Changeup	9%	86.9	32%	.371
Curveball	6%	80.4	29%	.402

Lars Nootbaar vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	770	10%	.387	94.8
Sinker	434	7%	.315	89.1
Sweeper	157	38%	.203	89.7
Changeup	281	28%	.345	85.7
Curveball	178	28%	.363	87.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

30%3/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model35% UNDER-1.4% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.7

Plate Appearancesavg 3.7

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.0

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.0

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	35%	-1.4%	+175	-4.5	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	OVER	PASS	25%	+0.2%	+280	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	13%	+5.7%	+1254	-0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+322	+0.2	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	50%	—	+110	+1.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+700	-1.8	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	32%	—	+152	-0.6	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=305 PA · 2026-06-05 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	61-263	.232	.369	.137	13	1	7	42	23.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	5-42	.119	.190	.071	0	0	1	7	28.6%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	56-221	.253	.403	.149	13	1	6	35	22.6%
Last 15 days recent form	9-34	.265	.382	.118	1	0	1	6	29.4%
vs Will Warren tonight's starting pitcher	3-5	.600	.600	.000	0	0	0	0	0.0%
vs NYY tonight's opponent (full roster)	9-34	.265	.559	.294	1	0	3	4	20.6%
@ Chase Field tonight's stadium	775-3381	.229	.256	.027	36	0	18	1045	16.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.342

wOBA0.310

delta−0.032 due

n=305 PA

Spray chart

607 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing out

Balls in play607

HR rate3.5%

Hard-hit (95+)51%

Avg exit velo91.3 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive24%

Fly ball27%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	3	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-16	5	0	0	1	1	0-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-15	6	0	0	1	4	0-for-5 · 1 BB · 4 K
2026-09-14	5	3	1	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-09-13	3	2	0	0	0	2-for-3
2026-09-12	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-09-11	2	0	0	2	0	0-for-0 · 2 BB
2026-09-09	4	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-08	3	2	0	0	1	2-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Lars Nootbaar across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.