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Hits UNDER 0.5 +19.6% edge model 58% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 0.5 58% +19.6% 20% CAUTION Home Runs UNDER 0.5 92% +5.0% 90% STRONG
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Lars Nootbaar, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 0-1 0% -100.0% A — — — B — — —
Combined 0-1 · n=1 · ROI -100.0% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Lars Nootbaar (LHB) vs Merrill Kelly RHP favors batter favors pitcher Merrill Kelly RHP · season · 78.1 IP · 336 BF
Lars Nootbaar hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 12-46 .261 .435 .174 2 13.2% 28.3% vs RHP 10-37 .270 .405 .135 1 14.0% 27.0%
Pitch-type matchup Merrill Kelly's arsenal × how Lars Nootbaar hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Merrill Kelly throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Changeup 27% 88.3 31% .390 TOP Four-Seam24% 91.9 18% .432 TOP Cutter19% 90.7 15% .399 Sinker 12% 92.3 7% .415 Curveball 10% 81.7 18% .378 Slider 9% 86.0 33% .328 Pitchout 0% 90.3 — —
Lars Nootbaar vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Changeup 281 28% .345 85.7 TOP Four-Seam770 10% .387 94.8 TOP Cutter138 17% .393 90.9 Sinker 434 7% .315 89.1 Curveball 178 28% .363 87.7 Slider 347 37% .337 90.7 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles70% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks40% RBIs30% Runs Scored70% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases0%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 58% UNDER +19.6% edge S
0 @NYM 06-10 2 @NYM 06-11 1 @MIN 06-12 1 @MIN 06-13 0 @MIN 06-14 2 vSDP 06-15 1 vSDP 06-16 1 vSDP 06-17 1 @KCR 06-19 2 @KCR 06-21
L5 100% 5/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 71% 10/14 2025 59% 82/138
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.1 Plate Appearances avg 4.1
5 4 5 2 4 4 4 4 4 5 Total Bases avg 1.6
0 6 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 3 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.0
2 0 2 0 2 1 1 2 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 5% — +400 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5UNDER S 58% +19.6% +161 -0.6 Sign in 1.5 UNDER PASS 84% +7.5% -450 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 3% -3.7% +1400 +0.4 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5UNDER A 92% +5.0% -667 -0.8 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 5% — +175 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 4% — +550 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 32% — +110 +1.1 — 1.5 — PASS 7% — +700 +0.0 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 25% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 24% — +146 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't +161 -450 +1400 -667
Price legs
Splits Career n=53 PA · 2026-06-05 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
12-46 .261 .435 .174 2 0 2 7 28.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
2-9 .222 .556 .333 0 0 1 1 33.3% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
10-37 .270 .405 .135 2 0 1 6 27.0% Last 15 days
recent form
9-39 .231 .333 .103 1 0 1 6 30.8% vs Merrill Kelly
tonight's starting pitcher
1-7 .143 .143 .000 0 0 0 1 28.6% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
404-1160 .348 .584 .235 0 0 91 456 39.9%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.313
wOBA 0.301
delta −0.012 due
n=53 PA
Spray chart 439 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Merrill Kelly's mix Balls in play 439
HR rate 3.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 53%
Avg exit velo 91.5 mph
Ground ball 38%
Line drive 26%
Fly ball 27%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-19 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 R 2026-06-17 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-16 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-15 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 2-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-14 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-13 2 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-1 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-12 5 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-5 · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-11 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-10 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Lars Nootbaar across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
