← BACK TO SLATE
Nico Hoerner
2B · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.5% edgemodel 10% · grade B
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nico Hoerner, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-3 | 73% | +62.6% |
| A | 6-2 | 75% | +48.8% |
| B | 5-4 | 56% | -15.9% |
Combined 19-9 · n=28 · ROI +33.4% · avg CLV +1.1 pts · beat close 64%
Matchup
Nico Hoerner (RHB) vs Rhett Lowder RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Rhett Lowder's arsenal × how Nico Hoerner hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.9
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.0
Walksavg 0.0
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=678 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.315
wOBA0.305
delta−0.010 due
n=675 PA
Spray chart
1157 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing outBalls in play1157
HR rate1.5%
Hard-hit (95+)30%
Avg exit velo86.4 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive27%
Fly ball22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nico Hoerner across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.