← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +6.2% edge model 71% · grade A
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 71% +6.2% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 9% +2.3% 30% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Nico Hoerner, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 6-4 60% +33.8% A 1-1 50% -27.0% B 5-4 56% -15.7%
Combined 12-9 · n=21 · ROI +6.8% · avg CLV +1.3 pts · beat close 71%
Matchup Nico Hoerner (RHB) vs Dylan Cease RHP favors batter favors pitcher Dylan Cease RHP · season · 117.0 IP · 503 BF
Nico Hoerner hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 123-470 .262 .368 .106 8 8.7% 9.6% vs RHP 87-347 .251 .352 .101 6 9.4% 9.2%
Pitch-type matchup Dylan Cease's arsenal × how Nico Hoerner hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Dylan Cease throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 40% 97.3 23% .361 Slider 38% 89.1 43% .373 Knuckle Curve 8% 82.4 35% .476 Sinker 6% 96.1 12% .341 Changeup 4% 83.0 57% .406 Sweeper 4% 84.3 26% .306
Nico Hoerner vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 1002 4% .331 88.7 Slider 534 20% .310 83.5 Knuckle Curve 50 17% .581 85.9 Sinker 700 3% .335 88.7 Changeup 245 15% .260 83.0 Sweeper 292 14% .305 84.4
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases50% Home Runs30% Singles70% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks20% RBIs50% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases30%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.6
Our model 71% OVER +6.2% edge A
4 @STL 07-27 1 @STL 07-28 0 @STL 07-29 3 @STL 07-30 0 vNYY 07-31 2 vNYY 08-01 1 vNYY 08-02 0 vLAD 08-03 2 vLAD 08-04 3 vLAD 08-05
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 70% 90/129 2025 74% 123/167
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.9 Plate Appearances avg 3.9
5 5 1 5 3 4 4 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 2.6
7 1 0 3 0 5 1 0 5 4 Home Runs avg 0.3
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
0 1 0 0 1 1 0 2 0 1
Tonight's lines 2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 12% — +475 +0.7 Sign in to save —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 27% — -137 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 37% — +190 +1.1 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -185 +320 +1400
Price legs
Splits Career n=515 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
123-470 .262 .368 .106 24 1 8 45 9.6% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
36-123 .293 .415 .122 9 0 2 9 10.6% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
87-347 .251 .352 .101 15 1 6 36 9.2% Last 15 days
recent form
17-49 .347 .531 .184 0 0 3 2 16.3% vs Dylan Cease
tonight's starting pitcher
3-7 .429 .571 .143 1 0 0 1 14.3% vs TOR
tonight's opponent (full roster)
12-46 .261 .283 .022 1 0 0 2 6.5% @ Wrigley Field
tonight's stadium
2709-9268 .292 .407 .115 291 157 154 403 14.9%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.329
wOBA 0.323
delta −0.006 due
n=512 PA
Spray chart 1013 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Dylan Cease's mix Balls in play 1013
HR rate 1.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 30%
Avg exit velo 86.7 mph
Ground ball 43%
Line drive 28%
Fly ball 23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-05 4 3 1 0 0 0 1 3-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-08-04 4 2 0 0 1 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-08-03 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-08-02 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 SB 2026-08-01 4 2 0 0 1 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-07-31 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-07-30 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3-for-5 · 1 SB 2026-07-29 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-07-28 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-07-27 5 4 0 0 1 0 0 4-for-5 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 2 R
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Nico Hoerner across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
