Austin Riley

3B · RHB · RHP · ATL

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

Starter

Michael King (RHP)

Stadium

Petco Park

Model HR%

24.0%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Austin Riley, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-2	60%	+7.6%
A	2-5	29%	-56.0%
B	1-4	20%	-75.6%

Combined 6-11 · n=17 · ROI -43.1% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 17%

Matchup

Austin Riley (RHB) vs Michael King RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Michael King RHP · season · 87.4 IP · 376 BF

BAA

.225

wOBA

.364

SLG

.381

ISO

.156

WHIP

1.35

HR/9

1.34

BB%

11.4%

20.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.5%

HH%

39.5%

FB%

33.5%

HR/FB%

19.4%

Austin Riley hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	62-290	.214	.372	.159	10	10.2%	30.7%
vs RHP	35-189	.185	.333	.148	7	10.0%	29.6%

Pitch-type matchup

Michael King's arsenal × how Austin Riley hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Michael King throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	29%	92.6	15%	.424
TOPChangeup	24%	86.5	28%	.294
TOPFour-Seam	23%	93.8	29%	.510
TOPSweeper	19%	82.2	29%	.352
Slider	5%	84.1	20%	.252

Austin Riley vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	444	16%	.422	92.4
TOPChangeup	231	39%	.374	85.9
TOPFour-Seam	949	24%	.429	94.0
TOPSweeper	269	30%	.501	92.5
Slider	401	38%	.370	89.9

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0

Plate Appearancesavg 4.0

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.0

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	76%	—	—	—	Sign in

Splits

Career n=323 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	62-290	.214	.372	.159	14	1	10	33	30.7%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	27-101	.267	.446	.178	7	1	3	12	32.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	35-189	.185	.333	.148	7	0	7	21	29.6%
Last 15 days recent form	7-34	.206	.265	.059	2	0	0	5	38.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.292

wOBA0.294

delta+0.002 hot

n=322 PA

Spray chart

503 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play503

HR rate5.4%

Hard-hit (95+)50%

Avg exit velo92.3 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive24%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+60.0%significant

n=374 games · 23/88 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

-28.9%significant

n=371 games · 5/48 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+38.0%significant

n=327 games · 15/63 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

5 / 7FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-33% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
-29% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
-27% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

1.60× HR rate

88 yes / 286 no · 65 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+46%

289 yes / 86 no · 66 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+38%

63 yes / 264 no · 56 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−33%

74 yes / 189 no · 44 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

−29%

48 yes / 323 no · 65 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−27%

39 yes / 336 no · 66 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+27%

177 yes / 193 no · 64 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+21%

141 yes / 220 no · 63 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+21%

134 yes / 241 no · 66 HRs

// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−25%

9 yes / 366 no · 66 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−20%

87 yes / 287 no · 65 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+16%

57 yes / 317 no · 66 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+14%

213 yes / 147 no · 62 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−12%

294 yes / 80 no · 66 HRs

Playing at home

−10%

188 yes / 187 no · 66 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+10%

62 yes / 283 no · 60 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−9%

215 yes / 160 no · 66 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−9%

15 yes / 359 no · 66 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+8%

226 yes / 145 no · 65 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+8%

176 yes / 198 no · 65 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−6%

108 yes / 267 no · 66 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+5%

76 yes / 284 no · 63 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

neutral

10 yes / 350 no · 63 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 374 no · 66 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

79 yes / 295 no · 65 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

50 yes / 324 no · 66 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 371 no · 65 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-20	3	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-06-19	3	1	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 K
2026-06-17	5	3	0	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-06-17	4	1	1	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 K
2026-06-14	4	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-06-13	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-12	4	1	1	2	1	1-for-2 · 1 2B · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-06-10	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-06-09	5	1	0	1	2	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Austin Riley across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.