Trevor Larnach

LF · LHB · RHP · MIN

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

LAD

Starter

Eric Lauer (LHP)

Stadium

Target Field

Model HR%

16.0%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+6.2% edgemodel 16% · grade A

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (46% usage, .378 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+6.2%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Trevor Larnach, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	0-1	0%	-100.0%
A	2-2	50%	-16.7%
B	0-1	0%	-100.0%

Combined 2-4 · n=6 · ROI -44.5% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%

Matchup

Trevor Larnach (LHB) vs Eric Lauer LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Eric Lauer LHP · season · 58.4 IP · 251 BF

BAA

.244

wOBA

.348

SLG

.489

ISO

.244

WHIP

1.34

HR/9

2.47

BB%

8.8%

15.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.7%

HH%

37.8%

FB%

45.2%

HR/FB%

26.2%

Trevor Larnach hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	57-209	.273	.416	.144	6	13.3%	21.1%
vs LHP	6-33	.182	.273	.091	1	8.3%	24.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Eric Lauer's arsenal × how Trevor Larnach hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Eric Lauer throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	46%	91.4	16%	.386
Cutter	20%	86.4	22%	.483
TOPCurveball	14%	75.1	22%	.349
Slider	11%	83.0	22%	.283
Changeup	10%	84.3	15%	.390
Sinker	0%	91.9	—	—

Trevor Larnach vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	868	13%	.378	92.0
Cutter	197	15%	.340	90.1
TOPCurveball	232	44%	.404	91.9
Slider	381	42%	.300	88.7
Changeup	370	39%	.320	83.4
Sinker	415	13%	.336	91.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.4

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 1.4

Singlesavg 1.0

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 2.2

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 0.4

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	16%	+6.2%	+921	+0.0	Sign in

Splits

Career n=241 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	57-209	.273	.416	.144	10	1	6	32	21.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	6-33	.182	.273	.091	0	0	1	3	24.2%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	51-176	.290	.443	.153	10	1	5	29	20.5%
Last 15 days recent form	13-35	.371	.571	.200	1	0	2	3	11.4%
vs LAD tonight's opponent (full roster)	2-10	.200	.800	.600	0	0	2	1	20.0%
@ Target Field tonight's stadium	683-2451	.279	.365	.086	212	0	0	359	23.4%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.320

wOBA0.330

delta+0.010 hot

n=240 PA

Spray chart

565 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-wind

Balls in play565

HR rate4.1%

Hard-hit (95+)39%

Avg exit velo89.0 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive26%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	5	2	2	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 2 2B · 1 RBI
2026-06-20	6	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-5 · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-06-19	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-06-18	5	3	0	1	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R
2026-06-16	6	4	0	1	0	0	4-for-6 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R
2026-06-14	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-06-13	2	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-1 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-12	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-11	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-06-09	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Trevor Larnach across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.