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Kyle Tucker
RF · LHB · RHP · LAD
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+7.2% edgemodel 22% · grade A
Why: Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph: +68.1% lift over 63 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .433 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Tucker, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-6 | 50% | -6.5% |
| A | 0-4 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 1-5 | 17% | -73.4% |
Combined 7-15 · n=22 · ROI -41.7% · avg CLV -1.3 pts · beat close 38%
Matchup
Kyle Tucker (LHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Kyle Tucker hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.5Plate Appearancesavg 3.5
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.6
Tonight's lines
2026-08-05 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=456 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-03
xStats luck
xwOBA0.330
wOBA0.318
delta−0.012 due
n=456 PA
Spray chart
749 balls in play since 2025Balls in play749
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)39%
Avg exit velo89.2 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive26%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+68.1%significant
n=381 games · 14/63 HR when active
-31.5%significant
n=446 games · 40/334 HR when active
-21.8%significant
n=449 games · 25/212 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −31% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
2.20× HR rate
52 yes / 397 no · 63 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
1.68× HR rate
63 yes / 318 no · 50 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.53× HR rate
177 yes / 269 no · 62 HRs
Playing at home
0.59× HR rate
231 yes / 220 no · 63 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
−31%
334 yes / 112 no · 61 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−28%
20 yes / 430 no · 63 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−22%
212 yes / 237 no · 62 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+21%
97 yes / 352 no · 62 HRs
// 20 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
3rd time through order vs starter
+19%
272 yes / 179 no · 63 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−17%
55 yes / 394 no · 63 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−16%
38 yes / 413 no · 63 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+13%
124 yes / 308 no · 60 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+12%
145 yes / 301 no · 62 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+11%
201 yes / 250 no · 63 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−10%
3 yes / 448 no · 63 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+10%
246 yes / 205 no · 63 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−9%
125 yes / 326 no · 63 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+8%
74 yes / 372 no · 61 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+7%
227 yes / 85 no · 39 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+6%
344 yes / 106 no · 63 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
91 yes / 356 no · 61 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
70 yes / 358 no · 59 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
8 yes / 424 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
245 yes / 185 no · 59 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
90 yes / 357 no · 61 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 451 no · 63 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 446 no · 61 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Tucker across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.