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Cal Raleigh
C · SHB · RHP · SEA
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1Plate Appearancesavg 4.1
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.0
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.7
Splits
Career n=231 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-06-24
xStats luck
xwOBA0.334
wOBA0.335
delta+0.001 hot
n=229 PA
Spray chart
590 balls in play since 2025Balls in play590
HR rate12.9%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo89.8 mph
Ground ball26%
Line drive19%
Fly ball43%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+29.0%significant
n=384 games · 67/258 HR when active
+22.6%small sample
n=392 games · 2/2 HR when active
+21.5%significant
n=331 games · 18/62 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-23
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+29%
258 yes / 126 no · 91 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−27%
21 yes / 370 no · 91 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+22%
138 yes / 254 no · 91 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+22%
62 yes / 269 no · 78 HRs
// 24 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+23%
2 yes / 390 no · 91 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+17%
11 yes / 381 no · 91 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−14%
232 yes / 159 no · 91 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+14%
198 yes / 184 no · 90 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+13%
53 yes / 319 no · 85 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−12%
73 yes / 311 no · 91 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
+11%
1 yes / 383 no · 91 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−10%
223 yes / 169 no · 91 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+10%
297 yes / 94 no · 91 HRs
Playing at home
−9%
200 yes / 192 no · 91 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+7%
152 yes / 240 no · 91 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+6%
76 yes / 313 no · 91 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+6%
213 yes / 179 no · 91 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+5%
94 yes / 296 no · 91 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
188 yes / 202 no · 91 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
161 yes / 221 no · 90 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
170 yes / 216 no · 91 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
54 yes / 338 no · 91 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
53 yes / 309 no · 84 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
5 yes / 367 no · 85 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
86 yes / 303 no · 91 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
39 yes / 352 no · 91 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Cal Raleigh across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.