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Tyler Stephenson
C · RHB · RHP · CIN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs UNDER 0.5+1.7% edgemodel 85% · grade PASS
Why: struggles vs the Cutter (15% usage, .240 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Tyler Stephenson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-6 | 33% | -36.8% |
| A | 4-6 | 40% | -15.5% |
| B | 6-8 | 43% | -0.4% |
Combined 13-20 · n=33 · ROI -14.9% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 40%
Matchup
Tyler Stephenson (RHB) vs J.T. Ginn RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
J.T. Ginn's arsenal × how Tyler Stephenson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.9Plate Appearancesavg 3.9
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.5
Total Basesavg 1.8
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.7
Tonight's lines
2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=327 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.329
wOBA0.326
delta−0.003 due
n=325 PA
Spray chart
391 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play391
HR rate5.9%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo90.7 mph
Ground ball36%
Line drive27%
Fly ball33%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Tyler Stephenson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.