Jake Mangum

CF · SHB · LHP · PIT

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Michael Wacha (RHP)

Stadium

PNC Park

Model HR%

7.4%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+0.8% edgemodel 7% · grade PASS

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (28% usage, .383 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	7%	+0.8%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jake Mangum, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-6	60%	+3.3%
A	8-5	62%	+33.8%
B	8-5	62%	+5.7%

Combined 25-16 · n=41 · ROI +13.7% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 33%

Matchup

Jake Mangum (SHB) vs Michael Wacha RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Michael Wacha RHP · season · 185.8 IP · 799 BF

BAA

.227

wOBA

.308

SLG

.411

ISO

.184

WHIP

1.23

HR/9

1.40

BB%

7.5%

19.8%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.1%

HH%

37.6%

FB%

39.1%

HR/FB%

14.4%

Jake Mangum hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	118-438	.269	.349	.080	4	7.6%	21.0%
vs RHP	86-315	.273	.359	.086	3	7.4%	20.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Michael Wacha's arsenal × how Jake Mangum hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Michael Wacha throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	28%	93.0	16%	.389
Changeup	24%	80.0	28%	.297
TOPCutter	15%	88.4	15%	.372
Sinker	14%	93.1	11%	.396
Slider	11%	84.8	28%	.372
Curveball	8%	75.4	31%	.344

Jake Mangum vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	668	19%	.383	88.5
Changeup	241	19%	.259	81.3
TOPCutter	126	18%	.405	81.1
Sinker	275	12%	.248	87.8
Slider	204	19%	.313	88.6
Curveball	136	11%	.289	85.2

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.8

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8

Plate Appearancesavg 3.8

Hitsavg 0.8

Singlesavg 0.4

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.3

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	7%	+0.8%	+1400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=474 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-16

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	118-438	.269	.349	.080	19	2	4	36	21.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	32-123	.260	.325	.065	5	0	1	11	22.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	86-315	.273	.359	.086	14	2	3	25	20.3%
Last 15 days recent form	6-31	.194	.258	.065	2	0	0	1	9.7%
@ PNC Park tonight's stadium	6453-23418	.276	.381	.105	1062	168	355	1745	18.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.272

wOBA0.305

delta+0.033 hot

n=472 PA

Spray chart

692 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-wind

Balls in play692

HR rate1.3%

Hard-hit (95+)31%

Avg exit velo85.5 mph

Ground ball60%

Line drive21%

Fly ball16%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	3	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-16	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-09-13	4	2	1	0	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 BB
2026-09-12	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4
2026-09-10	3	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-3 · 1 SB
2026-09-08	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 SB
2026-09-05	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-04	3	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jake Mangum across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.