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Nathaniel Lowe
1B · LHB · RHP · CLE
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+1.1% edgemodel 63% · grade PASS
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (42% usage, .427 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nathaniel Lowe, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 12-13 | 48% | +6.8% |
| A | 5-8 | 38% | -23.6% |
| B | 7-16 | 30% | +22.6% |
Combined 24-37 · n=61 · ROI +6.3% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 36%
Matchup
Nathaniel Lowe (LHB) vs Jack Perkins RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Jack Perkins's arsenal × how Nathaniel Lowe hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.3Plate Appearancesavg 3.3
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.3
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=429 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.320
wOBA0.332
delta+0.012 hot
n=429 PA
Spray chart
690 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing inBalls in play690
HR rate5.2%
Hard-hit (95+)41%
Avg exit velo89.7 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive27%
Fly ball26%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+15.4%small sample
n=360 games · 21/174 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +56% HR rate when playing at home.
- −29% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at hometonight
1.56× HR rate
170 yes / 191 no · 40 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight
−29%
46 yes / 314 no · 40 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−25%
285 yes / 75 no · 40 HRs
// 9 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+18%
145 yes / 215 no · 40 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−17%
16 yes / 344 no · 40 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+16%
147 yes / 214 no · 40 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+15%
174 yes / 186 no · 40 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
126 yes / 235 no · 40 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nathaniel Lowe across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.