Ty France

1B · RHB · RHP · SDP

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

MIA

Starter

Sandy Alcantara (RHP)

Stadium

Petco Park

Model HR%

10.5%

Model Hits%

67.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+2.5% edgemodel 33% · grade PASS

Why: struggles vs the Changeup (23% usage, .279 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	33%	+2.5%	30%	CAUTION
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	90%	+2.5%	90%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ty France, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	15-13	54%	+29.2%
A	2-4	33%	+102.3%
B	4-5	44%	-25.8%

Combined 21-22 · n=43 · ROI +27.9% · avg CLV -3.5 pts · beat close 41%

Matchup

Ty France (RHB) vs Sandy Alcantara RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Sandy Alcantara RHP · season · 209.8 IP · 902 BF

BAA

.243

wOBA

.314

SLG

.378

ISO

.134

WHIP

1.29

HR/9

0.99

BB%

7.5%

17.7%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.2%

HH%

36.7%

FB%

34.2%

HR/FB%

11.3%

Ty France hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	127-440	.289	.507	.218	23	9.8%	23.0%
vs RHP	92-314	.293	.525	.232	18	9.2%	21.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Sandy Alcantara's arsenal × how Ty France hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Sandy Alcantara throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Sinker	25%	97.1	9%	.340
Changeup	23%	90.5	27%	.317
TOPFour-Seam	18%	97.5	14%	.402
TOPSlider	18%	85.4	22%	.382
Cutter	14%	89.3	25%	.411
Sweeper	2%	84.0	33%	.243

Ty France vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Sinker	494	13%	.343	89.3
Changeup	207	22%	.279	89.5
TOPFour-Seam	678	18%	.419	89.0
TOPSlider	310	28%	.419	90.2
Cutter	182	16%	.306	87.9
Sweeper	221	30%	.338	90.8

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.7

Our model33% UNDER+2.5% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.7

Singlesavg 1.1

Doublesavg 0.5

Total Basesavg 2.5

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	7%	—	+375	+2.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	33%	+2.5%	+231	-0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	75%	-0.9%	-320	-3.8	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	PASS	90%	+2.5%	-667	-0.8	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	6%	—	+177	+0.3	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	4%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	52%	—	-125	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	14%	—	+500	+1.3	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	31%	—	+140	+0.7	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=488 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	127-440	.289	.507	.218	23	2	23	48	23.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	35-126	.278	.460	.183	6	1	5	16	27.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	92-314	.293	.525	.232	17	1	18	32	21.0%
Last 15 days recent form	14-40	.350	.525	.175	4	0	1	3	20.0%
vs MIA tonight's opponent (full roster)	14-44	.318	.409	.091	1	0	1	4	18.2%
@ Petco Park tonight's stadium	2244-8202	.274	.355	.081	232	0	145	1705	20.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.318

wOBA0.370

delta+0.052 hot

n=486 PA

Spray chart

713 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play713

HR rate4.2%

Hard-hit (95+)47%

Avg exit velo91.0 mph

Ground ball44%

Line drive26%

Fly ball25%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	3	1	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-18	4	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-17	5	3	1	0	0	0	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-09-16	5	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 2 RBI
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-14	5	3	1	0	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	5	3	1	0	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 K
2026-09-08	4	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-4
2026-09-07	4	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-06	3	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ty France across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.