Brandon Lowe

2B · LHB · RHP · PIT

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

Starter

Noah Cameron (LHP)

Stadium

PNC Park

Model HR%

21.6%

Model Hits%

68.7%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.8% edgemodel 22% · grade B

Why: NOT Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): -25.3% lift over 219 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (28% usage, .540 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	22%	+3.8%	40%	LEAN
Hits	OVER 0.5	66%	+0.8%	90%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Lowe, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	22-14	61%	+35.4%
A	8-12	40%	-18.0%
B	15-10	60%	+66.5%

Combined 45-36 · n=81 · ROI +31.8% · avg CLV -3.7 pts · beat close 36%

Matchup

Brandon Lowe (LHB) vs Noah Cameron LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Noah Cameron LHP · season · 165.8 IP · 713 BF

BAA

.230

wOBA

.309

SLG

.383

ISO

.153

WHIP

1.27

HR/9

1.03

BB%

8.4%

21.5%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.9%

HH%

37.4%

FB%

35.4%

HR/FB%

11.9%

Brandon Lowe hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	147-574	.256	.472	.216	31	10.0%	32.2%
vs LHP	39-186	.210	.355	.145	7	6.5%	40.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Noah Cameron's arsenal × how Brandon Lowe hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Noah Cameron throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	28%	92.3	11%	.399
TOPCutter	21%	88.4	22%	.373
TOPChangeup	19%	81.4	38%	.364
TOPCurveball	18%	81.0	28%	.324
TOPSlider	13%	84.4	25%	.394
Sinker	0%	91.7	0%	.282

Brandon Lowe vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	908	28%	.540	95.2
TOPCutter	231	26%	.446	93.0
TOPChangeup	381	30%	.416	86.8
TOPCurveball	214	32%	.405	89.6
TOPSlider	452	40%	.363	88.0
Sinker	396	18%	.470	94.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model66% OVER+0.8% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.6

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 1.2

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	10%	—	+400	+1.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	66%	+0.8%	-189	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	25%	+0.1%	+300	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	22%	+3.8%	+438	+0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	16%	—	+172	+1.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+500	+1.3	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	40%	—	+120	+1.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+800	+2.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	39%	—	+133	+0.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=638 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-17

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	147-574	.256	.472	.216	29	1	31	64	32.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	39-186	.210	.355	.145	6	0	7	13	40.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	108-388	.278	.528	.250	23	1	24	51	28.4%
Last 15 days recent form	13-37	.351	.541	.189	1	0	2	6	32.4%
@ PNC Park tonight's stadium	7528-26927	.280	.513	.233	1282	0	1665	2259	29.5%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.320

wOBA0.347

delta+0.027 hot

n=636 PA

Spray chart

762 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph cross-wind

Balls in play762

HR rate8.3%

Hard-hit (95+)46%

Avg exit velo91.5 mph

Ground ball36%

Line drive25%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-25.3%significant

n=409 games · 31/190 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+27.9%significant

n=406 games · 63/297 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

-16.9%small sample

n=397 games · 41/235 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+45% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
+28% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

+45%

300 yes / 109 no · 81 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

0.65× HR rate

50 yes / 360 no · 81 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

+28%

297 yes / 109 no · 80 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−25%

190 yes / 219 no · 81 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−25%

28 yes / 381 no · 81 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+21%

175 yes / 235 no · 81 HRs

// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+19%

212 yes / 192 no · 80 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

−17%

148 yes / 251 no · 81 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+17%

222 yes / 69 no · 55 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−17%

235 yes / 162 no · 76 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+16%

155 yes / 248 no · 80 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+13%

66 yes / 342 no · 81 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−13%

4 yes / 395 no · 81 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+12%

81 yes / 328 no · 81 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−12%

54 yes / 299 no · 69 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

−11%

53 yes / 357 no · 81 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+11%

68 yes / 338 no · 80 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

−10%

3 yes / 407 no · 81 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

+9%

7 yes / 403 no · 81 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+9%

118 yes / 292 no · 81 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−8%

120 yes / 290 no · 81 HRs

Playing at home

−5%

219 yes / 191 no · 81 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−5%

122 yes / 288 no · 81 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

73 yes / 336 no · 81 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

256 yes / 154 no · 81 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

neutral

60 yes / 326 no · 77 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 406 no · 80 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-18	5	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-17	4	1	1	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	2	0	1	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-15	5	1	0	1	0	2	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-13	2	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-2 · 2 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-10	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-09	5	2	0	0	1	2	2-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-08	5	2	0	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-09-06	3	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-3

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Lowe across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.