← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5 +9.0% edge model 15% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .357 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Home Runs OVER 0.5 15% +9.0% 0% CAUTION Hits OVER 0.5 71% +6.5% 50% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Myles Straw, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-5 29% -47.8% A 0-2 0% -100.0% B 0-3 0% -100.0%
Combined 2-10 · n=12 · ROI -69.5% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 20%
Matchup Myles Straw (RHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHP favors batter favors pitcher Shota Imanaga LHP · season · 133.5 IP · 574 BF
Myles Straw hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 44-198 .222 .328 .106 3 7.0% 13.1% vs LHP 21-110 .191 .300 .109 2 7.6% 19.1%
Pitch-type matchup Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Myles Straw hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Shota Imanaga throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam47% 91.2 14% .408 Splitter 32% 83.1 35% .332 Sweeper 16% 80.8 35% .437 Sinker 3% 89.8 16% .260 Curveball 2% 72.7 23% .432 Slider 0% 81.9 50% .513
Myles Straw vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam609 15% .357 85.6 Splitter 18 11% .315 82.4 Sweeper 75 14% .175 83.6 Sinker 264 3% .295 83.1 Curveball 86 19% .352 87.7 Slider 230 20% .298 84.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases50% Home Runs0% Singles20% Doubles50% Triples10% Strikeouts10% Walks0% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases20%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.8
Our model 71% OVER +6.5% edge A
0 @BOS 07-24 0 @BOS 07-25 2 @WSN 07-27 0 @WSN 07-28 0 vSTL 07-31 1 vSTL 08-01 0 vSTL 08-02 2 @HOU 08-03 2 @HOU 08-04 1 @HOU 08-05
L5 80% 4/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 35% 7/20 2026 39% 39/101 2025 45% 53/119
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.7 Plate Appearances avg 2.7
2 2 4 2 1 4 2 3 3 4 Total Bases avg 1.5
0 0 3 0 0 2 0 3 5 2 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.1
0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +450 +2.8 Sign in to save —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 38% — -137 +0.0 Sign in to save —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 38% — +160 +8.6 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -185 +240 +1652
Price legs
Splits Career n=213 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-04
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
44-198 .222 .328 .106 10 1 3 15 13.1% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
21-110 .191 .300 .109 6 0 2 9 19.1% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
23-88 .261 .364 .102 4 1 1 6 5.7% Last 15 days
recent form
7-24 .292 .542 .250 4 1 0 2 8.3% vs CHC
tonight's opponent (full roster)
5-25 .200 .200 .000 0 0 0 1 16.0% @ Wrigley Field
tonight's stadium
138-414 .333 .333 .000 0 0 0 138 0.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.283
wOBA 0.277
delta −0.006 due
n=212 PA
Spray chart 417 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Shota Imanaga's mix Balls in play 417
HR rate 1.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 26%
Avg exit velo 85.8 mph
Ground ball 41%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 27%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-05 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R 2026-08-04 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 1 3B · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-08-03 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 SB 2026-08-02 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-08-01 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B 2026-07-31 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-07-28 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2 2026-07-27 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-07-25 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-2 · 1 K 2026-07-24 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-2
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Myles Straw across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
