Nathan Lukes

RF · LHB · RHP · TOR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

TEX

Starter

Jacob deGrom (RHP)

Stadium

Globe Life Field

Model HR%

8.0%

Model Hits%

63.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+4.7% edgemodel 64% · grade B

Why: wind 10 mph blowing out.

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	64%	+4.7%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	8%	+2.0%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Nathan Lukes, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-12	48%	-3.7%
A	4-9	31%	-37.8%
B	8-3	73%	+19.4%

Combined 23-24 · n=47 · ROI -7.7% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 41%

Matchup

Nathan Lukes (LHB) vs Jacob deGrom RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jacob deGrom RHP · season · 145.3 IP · 625 BF

BAA

.215

wOBA

.280

SLG

.357

ISO

.142

WHIP

1.14

HR/9

1.24

BB%

6.4%

31.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.6%

HH%

44.7%

FB%

36.3%

HR/FB%

16.1%

Nathan Lukes hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	111-407	.273	.381	.108	10	7.1%	16.0%
vs RHP	98-331	.296	.414	.118	9	6.8%	14.2%

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.7

Our model64% OVER+4.7% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.9

Plate Appearancesavg 2.9

Hitsavg 0.7

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 0.8

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	7%	—	+515	-0.4	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	64%	+4.7%	-143	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	77%	+0.2%	-450	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	8%	+2.0%	+1587	-0.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	5%	—	+414	+0.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	3%	—	+900	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	51%	—	+109	+0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+550	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	29%	—	+210	-0.5	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=438 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	111-407	.273	.381	.108	14	10	31	16.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	13-76	.171	.237	.066	2	1	7	23.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	98-331	.296	.414	.118	12	9	24	14.2%
Last 15 days recent form	13-39	.333	.359	.026	1	0	1	15.4%
vs TEX tonight's opponent (full roster)	13-34	.382	.500	.118	1	1	6	5.9%
@ Globe Life Field tonight's stadium	0-36	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.279

wOBA0.313

delta+0.034 hot

n=438 PA

Spray chart

744 balls in play since 2025· wind 10 mph blowing out

Balls in play744

HR rate2.8%

Hard-hit (95+)31%

Avg exit velo85.6 mph

Ground ball51%

Line drive22%

Fly ball22%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-09-18	2	0	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-09-16	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-15	3	1	0	0	1	1-for-3 · 1 K
2026-09-14	4	1	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-09-13	1	0	0	1	0	0-for-0 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-09	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-1
2026-09-08	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Nathan Lukes across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.