Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

1B · RHB · RHP · TOR

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

STL

Starter

Matthew Liberatore (LHP)

Stadium

Rogers Centre

Model HR%

11.9%

Model Hits%

72.1%

Model K%

32.7%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+3.7% edgemodel 72% · grade B

Why: NOT Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest: -38.6% lift over 360 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (30% usage, .440 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	72%	+3.7%	80%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Vladimir Guerrero Jr., by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	4-1	80%	+88.6%
A	6-5	55%	-6.6%
B	2-3	40%	-44.5%

Combined 12-9 · n=21 · ROI +7.0% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 50%

Matchup

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RHB) vs Matthew Liberatore LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Matthew Liberatore LHP · season · 110.5 IP · 475 BF

BAA

.281

wOBA

.349

SLG

.463

ISO

.181

WHIP

1.50

HR/9

1.55

BB%

9.5%

22.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.1%

HH%

42.3%

FB%

34.6%

HR/FB%

21.1%

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	106-401	.264	.364	.100	7	11.1%	14.5%
vs LHP	24-86	.279	.384	.105	2	17.3%	14.0%

Pitch-type matchup

Matthew Liberatore's arsenal × how Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Matthew Liberatore throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	30%	94.1	11%	.422
TOPSlider	22%	86.4	32%	.432
TOPCurveball	15%	77.9	32%	.339
TOPChangeup	13%	88.5	19%	.359
Sinker	12%	94.1	6%	.428
Cutter	9%	90.3	15%	.354
Splitter	0%	87.5	0%	.482
Pitchout	0%	86.6	—	—

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1002	16%	.440	93.3
TOPSlider	537	22%	.372	88.7
TOPCurveball	168	25%	.370	90.4
TOPChangeup	392	26%	.412	89.6
Sinker	787	8%	.342	93.7
Cutter	353	19%	.465	91.9
Splitter	137	29%	.391	92.0
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model72% OVER+3.7% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.1

Plate Appearancesavg 4.1

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 1.0

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.4

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-08-02 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	9%	—	+350	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	72%	+3.7%	-260	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	32%	+1.6%	+234	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	9%	-2.5%	+750	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	88%	—	-588	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	9%	—	+210	-3.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	58%	—	-135	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	18%	—	+475	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	33%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	37%	—	+129	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=451 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-07-31

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	106-401	.264	.364	.100	19	7	50	14.5%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	24-86	.279	.384	.105	3	2	18	14.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	82-315	.260	.359	.098	16	5	32	14.6%
Last 15 days recent form	13-45	.289	.378	.089	4	0	3	13.3%
vs STL tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-18	.278	.333	.056	1	0	4	11.1%
@ Rogers Centre tonight's stadium	2703-14649	.185	.234	.050	731	0	867	17.5%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.359

wOBA0.351

delta−0.008 due

n=450 PA

Spray chart

922 balls in play since 2025· wind 6 mph blowing in

Balls in play922

HR rate4.1%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo91.5 mph

Ground ball48%

Line drive27%

Fly ball20%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

-38.6%significant

n=438 games · 6/78 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

-31.5%significant

n=463 games · 7/77 HR when active

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+17.2%small sample

n=463 games · 10/57 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-07-28

// TONIGHT

0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning against

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−30% HR rate when playing at home.

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+45%

64 yes / 395 no · 67 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

0.61× HR rate

78 yes / 360 no · 62 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

−31%

77 yes / 386 no · 67 HRs

Playing at hometonight

−30%

240 yes / 223 no · 67 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−28%

164 yes / 285 no · 64 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

+23%

148 yes / 315 no · 67 HRs

// 22 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

1.55× HR rate

5 yes / 430 no · 59 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−19%

366 yes / 96 no · 67 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+19%

157 yes / 301 no · 67 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+18%

54 yes / 381 no · 59 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+17%

57 yes / 406 no · 67 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+17%

201 yes / 262 no · 67 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+15%

345 yes / 118 no · 67 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

−15%

74 yes / 238 no · 45 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+12%

319 yes / 144 no · 67 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+12%

80 yes / 383 no · 67 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

−11%

79 yes / 384 no · 67 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−10%

259 yes / 188 no · 62 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+7%

71 yes / 319 no · 56 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

+7%

50 yes / 409 no · 67 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

−6%

308 yes / 154 no · 66 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 462 no · 67 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

79 yes / 383 no · 66 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

13 yes / 450 no · 67 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

20 yes / 442 no · 67 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

neutral

195 yes / 268 no · 67 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 462 no · 66 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-01	5	2	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 R
2026-07-31	4	1	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-07-28	2	1	0	0	0	1-for-2
2026-07-27	4	1	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B
2026-07-26	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-25	5	3	0	1	0	3-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-24	5	2	0	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-07-23	4	2	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-07-22	4	1	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B
2026-07-21	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.