← BACK TO SLATE
Juan Soto
LF · LHB · LHP · NYM
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+12.0% edgemodel 72% · grade S
Why: Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%): +34.4% lift over 257 games · strong vs the Changeup (37% usage, .497 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Juan Soto, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-4 | 20% | -69.0% |
| A | 3-1 | 75% | +90.4% |
| B | 3-1 | 75% | +99.6% |
Combined 7-6 · n=13 · ROI +31.9% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup
Juan Soto (LHB) vs Cristopher Sánchez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Cristopher Sánchez's arsenal × how Juan Soto hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.5
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 3.0
Home Runsavg 0.4
Strikeoutsavg 0.3
Walksavg 0.9
Tonight's lines
2026-06-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=260 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-06-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.420
wOBA0.411
delta−0.009 due
n=259 PA
Spray chart
647 balls in play since 2025· wind 13 mph cross-windBalls in play647
HR rate9.3%
Hard-hit (95+)54%
Avg exit velo93.3 mph
Ground ball44%
Line drive20%
Fly ball30%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+34.4%significant
n=402 games · 63/257 HR when active
+32.8%significant
n=402 games · 17/56 HR when active
-23.7%significant
n=404 games · 17/101 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
// TONIGHT
1 / 5FAVORABLE
Mostly against
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+34%
257 yes / 145 no · 88 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+33%
56 yes / 346 no · 88 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+30%
216 yes / 190 no · 89 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+25%
17 yes / 388 no · 89 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+24%
172 yes / 225 no · 85 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−24%
101 yes / 303 no · 89 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+22%
59 yes / 344 no · 87 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−18%
205 yes / 196 no · 88 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−17%
89 yes / 317 no · 89 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−14%
263 yes / 143 no · 89 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−13%
57 yes / 318 no · 78 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−11%
193 yes / 81 no · 55 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−9%
327 yes / 78 no · 89 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+6%
151 yes / 252 no · 87 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−6%
40 yes / 366 no · 89 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
neutral
200 yes / 206 no · 89 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 391 no · 87 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
210 yes / 196 no · 89 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
52 yes / 294 no · 77 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
53 yes / 344 no · 87 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
171 yes / 235 no · 89 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
4 yes / 402 no · 89 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
117 yes / 289 no · 89 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
217 yes / 177 no · 86 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
91 yes / 311 no · 88 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 402 no · 88 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 406 no · 89 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Juan Soto across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.