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Stadium
Great American Ball Park
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +17.1% edge model 72% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sinker (42% usage, .345 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 72% +17.1% 50% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 11% +2.2% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on David Hamilton, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-4 20% -56.6% A 0-1 0% -100.0% B 0-2 0% -100.0%
Combined 1-7 · n=8 · ROI -72.9% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup David Hamilton (LHB) vs Brady Singer RHP favors batter favors pitcher Brady Singer RHP · season · 78.4 IP · 337 BF
David Hamilton hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 48-200 .240 .335 .095 3 9.9% 22.5% vs RHP 38-160 .237 .350 .112 3 9.6% 21.3%
Pitch-type matchup Brady Singer's arsenal × how David Hamilton hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Brady Singer throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Sinker 42% 91.9 13% .409 Slider 29% 82.5 26% .345 Sweeper 11% 81.5 34% .374 Four-Seam 9% 91.2 17% .449 Cutter 8% 87.5 21% .389
David Hamilton vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Sinker 194 14% .345 82.1 Slider 184 31% .229 75.3 Sweeper 86 26% .233 75.4 Four-Seam 471 9% .292 83.6 Cutter 90 8% .294 74.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles40% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks10% RBIs20% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases20%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.9
Our model 72% OVER +17.1% edge S
4 06-06 0 @OAK 06-08 0 @OAK 06-09 1 @OAK 06-10 0 vPHI 06-12 0 vPHI 06-13 1 vPHI 06-14 0 vCLE 06-16 1 vCLE 06-17 2 @ATL 06-21
L5 60% 3/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 54% 42/78 2025 37% 26/70
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.4 Plate Appearances avg 3.4
5 2 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 Total Bases avg 1.4
7 0 0 2 0 0 1 0 1 3 Home Runs avg 0.1
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.2
1 2 2 1 2 0 1 1 0 2
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 9% — +600 +1.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 72% +17.1% -122 +0.4 Sign in 1.5 OVER S 30% +10.4% +400 +1.8 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% +1.2% +1750 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 11% +2.2% +984 -0.1 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 9% — +246 +1.9 — 1.5 — PASS 5% — +800 +1.1 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 58% — +120 +1.0 — 1.5 — A 17% — +800 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 43% — +200 +2.1 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -122 +400 +1750 +984
Price legs
Splits Career n=222 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
48-200 .240 .335 .095 6 2 3 22 22.5% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
10-40 .250 .275 .025 1 0 0 5 27.5% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
38-160 .237 .350 .112 5 2 3 17 21.3% Last 15 days
recent form
3-24 .125 .167 .042 1 0 0 1 37.5% vs Brady Singer
tonight's starting pitcher
4-8 .500 .750 .250 2 0 0 0 0.0% vs CIN
tonight's opponent (full roster)
11-25 .440 .760 .320 2 0 2 1 8.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.247
wOBA 0.291
delta +0.044 hot
n=222 PA
Spray chart 294 balls in play since 2025 · wind 9 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Brady Singer's mix Balls in play 294
HR rate 3.1%
Hard-hit (95+) 25%
Avg exit velo 80.0 mph
Ground ball 49%
Line drive 19%
Fly ball 27%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 2 1 0 0 0 2 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 K 2026-06-17 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB 2026-06-16 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-14 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-06-12 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-10 3 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 K 2026-06-09 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-08 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-2 · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-06 5 4 0 0 1 0 1 4-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to David Hamilton across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
