Jo Adell

RF · RHB · RHP · CLE

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

ATH

Starter

Jack Perkins (RHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

13.8%

Model Hits%

64.0%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+1.8% edgemodel 78% · grade PASS

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	78%	+1.8%	80%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	14%	-0.5%	20%	PASS

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Jo Adell, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	10-8	56%	+26.1%
A	6-6	50%	+22.8%
B	8-10	44%	+80.4%

Combined 24-24 · n=48 · ROI +45.6% · avg CLV -2.8 pts · beat close 38%

Matchup

Jo Adell (RHB) vs Jack Perkins RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Jack Perkins RHP · season · 120.0 IP · 516 BF

BAA

.259

wOBA

.316

SLG

.445

ISO

.186

WHIP

1.48

HR/9

1.50

BB%

11.6%

25.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

37.1%

FB%

39.6%

HR/FB%

18.4%

Jo Adell hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	143-598	.239	.401	.162	23	7.3%	27.3%
vs RHP	91-431	.211	.334	.123	10	7.1%	27.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Jack Perkins's arsenal × how Jo Adell hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Jack Perkins throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	42%	96.1	21%	.394
Sweeper	31%	86.2	38%	.274
TOPChangeup	13%	89.7	44%	.278
Cutter	12%	93.2	22%	.340
Sinker	1%	95.0	0%	.245
Curveball	0%	84.2	100%	—

Jo Adell vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	926	21%	.517	94.3
Sweeper	356	25%	.341	86.1
TOPChangeup	257	40%	.404	87.7
Cutter	201	21%	.560	95.1
Sinker	555	17%	.381	90.6
Curveball	186	34%	.390	89.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model36% UNDER-3.3% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.8

Home Runsavg 0.2

Strikeoutsavg 1.3

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	7%	—	+350	+2.2	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	36%	-3.3%	+155	+2.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	78%	+1.8%	-450	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	14%	-0.5%	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+154	+0.9	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	A	7%	—	+400	+1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	48%	—	+115	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+600	+1.8	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	PASS	30%	—	+158	+0.6	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=645 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	143-598	.239	.401	.162	26	1	23	47	27.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	52-167	.311	.575	.263	5	0	13	14	25.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	91-431	.211	.334	.123	21	1	10	33	27.8%
Last 15 days recent form	11-46	.239	.413	.174	2	0	2	4	37.0%
vs Jack Perkins tonight's starting pitcher	1-7	.143	.429	.286	0	1	0	1	28.6%
@ Progressive Field tonight's stadium	2841-12722	.223	.342	.118	547	0	320	1077	30.3%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.314

wOBA0.300

delta−0.014 due

n=644 PA

Spray chart

827 balls in play since 2025· wind 8 mph blowing in

Balls in play827

HR rate7.5%

Hard-hit (95+)47%

Avg exit velo90.9 mph

Ground ball39%

Line drive24%

Fly ball28%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+44.9%significant

n=359 games · 9/31 HR when active

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+29.7%significant

n=358 games · 13/57 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

-22.3%significant

n=357 games · 45/288 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

2 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

−30% HR rate when playing at home.
+27% HR rate when vs fly-ball-prone pitcher (fb% allowed > 40%).
−22% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
+20% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

1.72× HR rate

64 yes / 199 no · 38 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+45%

31 yes / 328 no · 61 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+37%

39 yes / 320 no · 61 HRs

Playing at hometonight

−30%

178 yes / 181 no · 61 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

+30%

57 yes / 301 no · 61 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+28%

63 yes / 295 no · 61 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)tonight

+27%

54 yes / 303 no · 60 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+26%

158 yes / 201 no · 61 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+23%

61 yes / 297 no · 61 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

−22%

288 yes / 69 no · 60 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight

+20%

278 yes / 80 no · 60 HRs

// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+17%

190 yes / 169 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+16%

57 yes / 281 no · 60 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

+15%

7 yes / 335 no · 57 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−15%

163 yes / 195 no · 61 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

−14%

11 yes / 348 no · 61 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

−12%

49 yes / 259 no · 52 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−11%

177 yes / 176 no · 60 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−10%

97 yes / 262 no · 61 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+8%

72 yes / 270 no · 57 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

−7%

2 yes / 357 no · 61 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+6%

141 yes / 218 no · 61 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−5%

14 yes / 344 no · 60 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

190 yes / 163 no · 60 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

neutral

60 yes / 299 no · 61 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

neutral

158 yes / 196 no · 60 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 357 no · 60 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	5	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-18	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-16	4	1	0	0	1	2	1-for-3 · 2 RBI · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-09-15	4	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-14	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-13	5	2	1	1	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-09-12	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	0	0	0	0	3	0-for-4 · 3 K
2026-09-09	5	1	0	0	0	3	1-for-5 · 3 K
2026-09-08	5	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Jo Adell across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.