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Jo Adell
RF · RHB · RHP · CLE
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+8.0% edgemodel 67% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Sinker (33% usage, .381 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Jo Adell, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 2-3 | 40% | +30.8% |
| A | 2-3 | 40% | -43.4% |
| B | 2-5 | 29% | +76.6% |
Combined 6-11 · n=17 · ROI +27.8% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup
Jo Adell (RHB) vs Nolan McLean RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Nolan McLean's arsenal × how Jo Adell hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.7
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=481 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.325
wOBA0.311
delta−0.014 due
n=480 PA
Spray chart
724 balls in play since 2025Balls in play724
HR rate7.7%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo90.8 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive24%
Fly ball29%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-18.4%small sample
n=213 games · 19/108 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
2 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +52% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- +37% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
1.52× HR rate
156 yes / 59 no · 42 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+37%
84 yes / 132 no · 43 HRs
// 10 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−21%
13 yes / 202 no · 42 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−18%
108 yes / 105 no · 43 HRs
Playing at home
−13%
105 yes / 111 no · 43 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−12%
58 yes / 158 no · 43 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+9%
26 yes / 190 no · 43 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+9%
26 yes / 190 no · 43 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Jo Adell across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.