Bo Bichette

3B · RHB · RHP · NYM

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

CHC

Starter

Shota Imanaga (LHP)

Stadium

Citi Field

Model HR%

18.6%

Model Hits%

73.3%

Model K%

36.9%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 1.5+3.5% edgemodel 69% · grade B

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 1.5	69%	+3.5%	40%	LEAN
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	19%	+3.0%	20%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Bo Bichette, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	0-1	0%	-100.0%
A	2-1	67%	+5.8%
B	2-2	50%	+2.2%

Combined 4-4 · n=8 · ROI -9.2% · avg CLV -1.2 pts · beat close 33%

Matchup

Bo Bichette (RHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Shota Imanaga LHP · season · 90.7 IP · 390 BF

BAA

.216

wOBA

.316

SLG

.413

ISO

.197

WHIP

1.18

HR/9

1.79

BB%

7.4%

24.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

3.4%

HH%

39.2%

FB%

42.2%

HR/FB%

20.9%

Bo Bichette hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	85-327	.260	.391	.131	9	7.1%	17.4%
vs LHP	22-83	.265	.494	.229	5	9.8%	13.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Bo Bichette hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Shota Imanaga throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	47%	91.2	14%	.408
TOPSplitter	32%	83.1	35%	.332
TOPSweeper	16%	80.8	35%	.437
Sinker	3%	89.8	16%	.260
Curveball	2%	72.7	23%	.432
Slider	0%	81.9	50%	.513

Bo Bichette vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1068	14%	.390	93.0
TOPSplitter	66	26%	.361	84.6
TOPSweeper	252	25%	.414	88.1
Sinker	665	7%	.352	92.2
Curveball	182	30%	.427	88.9
Slider	512	21%	.400	89.9

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.6

Our model27% UNDER-3.5% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.6

Singlesavg 1.0

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 2.8

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	11%	—	+375	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	27%	-3.5%	+230	+0.0	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	B	69%	+3.5%	-192	+0.0	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	-6.1%	+700	-0.8	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	19%	+3.0%	+537	+0.0	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	13%	—	+197	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+600	+0.0	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	54%	—	-155	+0.8	—
1.5	—	A	12%	—	+450	+0.0	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	37%	—	-137	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	PASS	46%	—	+120	+0.0	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=352 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	85-327	.260	.391	.131	14	1	9	25	17.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	22-83	.265	.494	.229	4	0	5	9	13.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	63-244	.258	.357	.098	10	1	4	16	18.9%
Last 15 days recent form	18-52	.346	.596	.250	4	0	3	1	17.3%
vs CHC tonight's opponent (full roster)	7-30	.233	.467	.233	1	0	2	2	13.3%
@ Citi Field tonight's stadium	741-2619	.283	.547	.264	62	0	210	0	26.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.335

wOBA0.351

delta+0.016 hot

n=350 PA

Spray chart

797 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play797

HR rate3.8%

Hard-hit (95+)50%

Avg exit velo91.5 mph

Ground ball48%

Line drive28%

Fly ball21%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-15.4%small sample

n=326 games · 16/143 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

3 / 4FAVORABLE

Mostly favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

-50% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
+31% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
-21% HR rate when rested (2+ days off).

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

1.67× HR rate

44 yes / 281 no · 41 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

0.50× HR rate

52 yes / 273 no · 41 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+31%

250 yes / 75 no · 41 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−21%

17 yes / 308 no · 41 HRs

// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

−16%

135 yes / 191 no · 41 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−15%

143 yes / 183 no · 41 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−8%

86 yes / 240 no · 41 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

164 yes / 162 no · 41 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-20	3	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-3
2026-06-18	5	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-5
2026-06-17	5	3	0	0	1	0	3-for-4 · 1 RBI · 3 R · 1 BB
2026-06-16	5	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-06-15	5	3	2	0	0	1	3-for-5 · 2 2B · 1 K
2026-06-14	5	2	0	0	0	2	2-for-5 · 2 R · 2 K
2026-06-13	4	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R
2026-06-12	4	2	0	2	0	0	2-for-4 · 2 HR · 6 RBI · 2 R
2026-06-11	4	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Bo Bichette across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.