← BACK TO SLATE
Randy Arozarena
LF · RHB · RHP · SEA
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Randy Arozarena, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 6-2 | 75% | +31.5% |
| A | 8-2 | 80% | +237.0% |
| B | 6-5 | 55% | +89.6% |
Combined 20-9 · n=29 · ROI +124.4% · avg CLV -1.3 pts · beat close 18%
Matchup
Randy Arozarena (RHB) vs Drew Anderson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4Plate Appearancesavg 4.4
Hitsavg 1.2
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.3
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.8
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-05 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=476 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-02
xStats luck
xwOBA0.315
wOBA0.333
delta+0.018 hot
n=474 PA
Spray chart
783 balls in play since 2025Balls in play783
HR rate6.0%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo91.4 mph
Ground ball46%
Line drive23%
Fly ball24%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-27.1%significant
n=391 games · 6/65 HR when active
-24.9%significant
n=463 games · 28/225 HR when active
-20.1%small sample
n=464 games · 0/7 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
// TONIGHT
2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Slight favorable lean
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +37% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +28% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
- −25% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+37%
201 yes / 263 no · 69 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−30%
139 yes / 325 no · 69 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight
+28%
195 yes / 266 no · 69 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−27%
65 yes / 326 no · 54 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
−25%
225 yes / 238 no · 69 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−20%
7 yes / 457 no · 69 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−15%
114 yes / 325 no · 67 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−14%
236 yes / 212 no · 66 HRs
Playing at home
+14%
232 yes / 232 no · 69 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+12%
365 yes / 98 no · 69 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−12%
92 yes / 371 no · 69 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+12%
46 yes / 415 no · 69 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−10%
18 yes / 445 no · 69 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+10%
41 yes / 423 no · 69 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−9%
288 yes / 176 no · 69 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+7%
356 yes / 108 no · 69 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−7%
205 yes / 254 no · 68 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+7%
79 yes / 229 no · 44 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−6%
79 yes / 383 no · 69 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
90 yes / 373 no · 69 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
63 yes / 383 no · 66 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
89 yes / 374 no · 69 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
neutral
6 yes / 433 no · 67 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
187 yes / 271 no · 69 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
329 yes / 133 no · 69 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 464 no · 69 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 462 no · 69 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Randy Arozarena across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.