← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5 +8.3% edge model 26% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .394 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Home Runs OVER 0.5 26% +8.3% 20% CAUTION Hits OVER 0.5 70% +8.3% 50% LEAN
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Mark Vientos, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S — — — A 1-0 100% +58.1% B 2-1 67% +71.0%
Combined 3-1 · n=4 · ROI +67.8% · avg CLV -3.9 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Mark Vientos (RHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHP favors batter favors pitcher Shota Imanaga LHP · season · 90.7 IP · 390 BF
Mark Vientos hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 48-228 .211 .382 .171 10 4.6% 23.7% vs LHP 23-85 .271 .471 .200 4 4.5% 21.2%
Pitch-type matchup Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Mark Vientos hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Shota Imanaga throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam47% 91.2 14% .408 TOP Splitter32% 83.1 35% .332 Sweeper 16% 80.8 35% .437 Sinker 3% 89.8 16% .260 Curveball 2% 72.7 23% .432 Slider 0% 81.9 50% .513
Mark Vientos vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam628 22% .394 93.6 TOP Splitter82 58% .360 93.0 Sweeper 293 32% .321 89.1 Sinker 439 15% .353 91.1 Curveball 140 39% .534 93.1 Slider 444 37% .488 91.7
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits50% Total Bases20% Home Runs20% Singles40% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks10% RBIs40% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
50% 5/10 · L10 · avg 0.6
Our model 70% OVER +8.3% edge S
0 @SDP 06-05 0 @SDP 06-06 0 vSTL 06-09 0 vSTL 06-10 1 vATL 06-13 1 @CIN 06-15 1 @CIN 06-16 1 @CIN 06-17 0 @PHI 06-18 2 @PHI 06-20
L5 80% 4/5 L10 50% 5/10 L20 50% 10/20 2026 51% 39/76 2025 63% 80/128
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 2.6 Plate Appearances avg 2.6
1 4 1 1 4 2 2 5 2 4 Total Bases avg 1.2
0 0 0 0 1 1 4 1 0 5 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 Strikeouts avg 0.9
1 3 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 2
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 8% — +491 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 70% +8.3% -164 -0.7 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 28% +7.2% +340 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -2.2% +1300 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 26% +8.3% +455 -0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 18% — +202 +0.0 — 1.5 — S 16% — +550 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 44% — +146 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 10% — +900 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 49% — +154 +1.2 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -164 +340 +1300 +455
Price legs
Splits Career n=239 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
48-228 .211 .382 .171 9 0 10 11 23.7% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
23-85 .271 .471 .200 5 0 4 4 21.2% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
25-143 .175 .329 .154 4 0 6 7 25.2% Last 15 days
recent form
6-20 .300 .600 .300 0 0 2 1 25.0% vs Shota Imanaga
tonight's starting pitcher
0-5 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0.0% vs CHC
tonight's opponent (full roster)
7-40 .175 .325 .150 0 0 2 2 20.0% @ Citi Field
tonight's stadium
105-691 .152 .152 .000 0 0 0 0 21.4%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.320
wOBA 0.291
delta −0.029 due
n=238 PA
Spray chart 495 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Shota Imanaga's mix Balls in play 495
HR rate 5.5%
Hard-hit (95+) 47%
Avg exit velo 90.5 mph
Ground ball 43%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-20 4 2 0 0 1 0 2 2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 K 2026-06-18 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-1 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-17 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 2 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-16 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-15 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-2 2026-06-13 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-10 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-09 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-06 4 0 0 0 0 0 3 0-for-4 · 3 K 2026-06-05 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Mark Vientos across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
