Brandon Marsh

LF · LHB · RHP · PHI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

WSH

Starter

Cade Cavalli (RHP)

Stadium

Nationals Park

Model HR%

10.3%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Brandon Marsh, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	14-12	54%	+4.4%
A	14-9	61%	+46.2%
B	4-19	17%	-50.9%

Combined 32-40 · n=72 · ROI +0.1% · avg CLV -1.0 pts · beat close 43%

Matchup

Brandon Marsh (LHB) vs Cade Cavalli RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Cade Cavalli RHP · season · 164.4 IP · 707 BF

BAA

.229

wOBA

.292

SLG

.348

ISO

.120

WHIP

1.28

HR/9

0.99

BB%

9.0%

27.6%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.6%

HH%

40.1%

FB%

26.5%

HR/FB%

17.5%

Brandon Marsh hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	135-520	.260	.404	.144	17	6.3%	26.0%
vs RHP	107-396	.270	.422	.152	14	6.8%	22.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Cade Cavalli's arsenal × how Brandon Marsh hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Cade Cavalli throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	32%	96.7	18%	.420
TOPKnuckle Curve	29%	85.5	39%	.355
TOPSinker	17%	96.4	9%	.351
Changeup	11%	89.5	34%	.251
Sweeper	7%	85.2	22%	.326
Cutter	4%	93.7	9%	.345
Pitchout	0%	92.1	—	—

Brandon Marsh vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	923	16%	.403	92.3
TOPKnuckle Curve	47	50%	.881	100.9
TOPSinker	318	10%	.450	91.5
Changeup	218	25%	.369	86.5
Sweeper	161	30%	.398	87.2
Cutter	177	23%	.372	91.8
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

40%4/10 · L10 · avg 0.4

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.7

Plate Appearancesavg 2.7

Hitsavg 0.4

Singlesavg 0.3

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 0.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.5

Walksavg 0.0

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	90%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=555 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	135-520	.260	.404	.144	20	2	17	35	26.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	28-124	.226	.347	.121	2	2	3	6	37.9%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	107-396	.270	.422	.152	18	0	14	29	22.2%
Last 15 days recent form	3-25	.120	.160	.040	1	0	0	0	16.0%
vs Cade Cavalli tonight's starting pitcher	3-12	.250	.583	.333	1	0	1	0	8.3%
@ Nationals Park tonight's stadium	1483-2629	.564	1.071	.507	160	0	391	160	16.5%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.296

wOBA0.306

delta+0.010 hot

n=554 PA

Spray chart

684 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play684

HR rate4.2%

Hard-hit (95+)41%

Avg exit velo88.7 mph

Ground ball42%

Line drive27%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	K	Outcomes
2026-09-13	2	0	0	0	0-for-2 · 1 R
2026-09-12	3	0	0	0	0-for-3
2026-09-11	1	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-10	3	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-09	2	1	0	0	1-for-2
2026-09-08	3	1	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-07	3	1	0	0	1-for-3
2026-09-06	2	0	0	0	0-for-2
2026-09-04	1	0	0	0	0-for-1
2026-09-02	3	0	0	1	0-for-3 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brandon Marsh across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.