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Hits UNDER 1.5 +0.7% edge model 76% · grade PASS
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 1.5 76% +0.7% 100% LEAN Home Runs UNDER 0.5 83% -3.6% 100% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Kyle Stowers, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 10-1 91% +46.8% A 3-6 33% -30.8% B 3-7 30% -35.4%
Combined 16-14 · n=30 · ROI -3.9% · avg CLV -1.6 pts · beat close 32%
Matchup Kyle Stowers (LHB) vs Walker Buehler RHP favors batter favors pitcher Walker Buehler RHP · season · 151.9 IP · 653 BF
Kyle Stowers hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 104-440 .236 .445 .209 19 11.6% 35.7% vs RHP 84-342 .246 .471 .225 17 12.1% 36.3%
Pitch-type matchup Walker Buehler's arsenal × how Kyle Stowers hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Walker Buehler throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam23% 93.9 11% .429 TOP Cutter19% 90.3 16% .404 TOP Sinker16% 93.8 5% .361 TOP Knuckle Curve13% 77.3 27% .408 TOP Slider13% 87.3 20% .356 Changeup 8% 89.2 22% .329 Sweeper 7% 81.4 33% .285
Kyle Stowers vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam837 29% .476 91.9 TOP Cutter207 27% .549 92.5 TOP Sinker267 21% .373 88.1 TOP Knuckle Curve50 41% .563 102.5 TOP Slider256 32% .466 91.6 Changeup 254 37% .449 90.0 Sweeper 125 26% .383 86.5
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits60% Total Bases20% Home Runs0% Singles40% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks40% RBIs10% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases0%
60% 6/10 · L10 · avg 0.6
Our model 35% UNDER +0.4% edge PASS
0 vNYM 09-08 1 vNYM 09-09 1 vLAD 09-11 0 vLAD 09-12 1 vLAD 09-13 1 @ARI 09-14 0 @ARI 09-15 1 @ARI 09-16 0 @SDP 09-18 1 @SDP 09-19
L5 60% 3/5 L10 60% 6/10 L20 65% 13/20 2026 59% 73/123 2025 65% 80/124
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.6 Plate Appearances avg 4.6
2 6 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 Total Bases avg 0.8
0 2 1 0 1 2 0 1 0 1 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.4
2 2 0 2 2 1 2 1 0 2
Tonight's lines 2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits UNDER 0.5+188 Hits UNDER 1.5-400 Home Runs UNDER 0.5-670
Price legs
Splits Career n=498 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
104-440 .236 .445 .209 27 4 19 58 35.7% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
20-98 .204 .357 .153 9 0 2 11 33.7% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
84-342 .246 .471 .225 18 4 17 47 36.3% Last 15 days
recent form
7-47 .149 .255 .106 2 0 1 8 36.2% @ Petco Park
tonight's stadium
0-90 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 0.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.324
wOBA 0.335
delta +0.011 hot
n=497 PA
Spray chart 573 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Walker Buehler's mix Balls in play 573
HR rate 7.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 54%
Avg exit velo 91.6 mph
Ground ball 38%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 32%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-19 5 1 0 0 0 1 2 1-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-09-18 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-5 2026-09-16 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-15 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-09-14 5 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-09-13 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-09-12 5 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-5 · 2 K 2026-09-11 4 1 0 0 0 2 0 1-for-2 · 2 BB 2026-09-09 6 1 1 0 0 0 2 1-for-6 · 1 2B · 1 R · 2 K 2026-09-08 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-2 · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Kyle Stowers across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.