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Will Smith
C · RHB · RHP · LAD
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Will Smith, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | — | — | — |
| A | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | — | — | — |
Combined 0-1 · n=1 · ROI -100.0% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.8
Splits
Career n=214 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-06-05
xStats luck
xwOBA0.366
wOBA0.334
delta−0.032 due
n=212 PA
Spray chart
469 balls in play since 2025Balls in play469
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)51%
Avg exit velo91.8 mph
Ground ball32%
Line drive26%
Fly ball37%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+31.8%significant
n=283 games · 25/141 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at home
+44%
155 yes / 130 no · 43 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+32%
141 yes / 142 no · 43 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−23%
71 yes / 214 no · 43 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−22%
39 yes / 243 no · 43 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+20%
163 yes / 121 no · 43 HRs
// 7 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
−15%
27 yes / 257 no · 43 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−12%
18 yes / 264 no · 43 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
129 yes / 156 no · 43 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Will Smith across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.