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Nolan Gorman
3B · LHB · RHP · STL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Nolan Gorman, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 0-3 | 0% | -100.0% |
| A | 0-1 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | — | — | — |
Combined 0-4 · n=4 · ROI -100.0% · avg CLV -1.5 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup
Nolan Gorman (LHB) vs Merrill Kelly RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Merrill Kelly's arsenal × how Nolan Gorman hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA2.9Plate Appearancesavg 2.9
Hitsavg 0.1
Singlesavg 0.0
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.4
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.6
Walksavg 0.3
Tonight's lines
2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=244 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-11
xStats luck
xwOBA0.280
wOBA0.277
delta−0.003 due
n=242 PA
Spray chart
365 balls in play since 2025Balls in play365
HR rate5.5%
Hard-hit (95+)38%
Avg exit velo88.7 mph
Ground ball29%
Line drive25%
Fly ball37%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-38.1%significant
n=266 games · 14/129 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
4 / 6FAVORABLE
Mixed, leaning favorable
// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT
- +30% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- -24% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
- -21% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
0.62× HR rate
129 yes / 137 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+30%
115 yes / 151 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+30%
37 yes / 229 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−24%
70 yes / 196 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−21%
38 yes / 228 no · 41 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+21%
29 yes / 236 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−13%
172 yes / 93 no · 41 HRs
Playing at home
+8%
130 yes / 136 no · 41 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Nolan Gorman across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.