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Hits OVER 0.5 +10.7% edge model 68% · grade S
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 68% +10.7% 30% CAUTION Home Runs OVER 0.5 6% -0.3% 0% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Nicky Lopez, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 6-9 40% -33.1% A 2-6 25% -56.0% B 1-4 20% -63.2%
Combined 9-19 · n=28 · ROI -45.0% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup Nicky Lopez (LHB) vs Carson Whisenhunt favors batter favors pitcher Carson Whisenhunt · season · 20.2 IP · 87 BF
Nicky Lopez hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 49-185 .265 .297 .032 1 6.6% 16.2% vs ?HP 36-138 .261 .304 .043 1 6.8% 17.4%
Pitch-type matchup Carson Whisenhunt's arsenal × how Nicky Lopez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Carson Whisenhunt throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 48% 92.6 11% .467 Changeup 37% 81.1 37% .339 Slider 14% 83.3 20% .376 Curveball 1% 78.3 0% .867
Nicky Lopez vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 67 7% .181 91.3 Changeup 17 29% .197 84.2 Slider 21 25% .243 68.9 Curveball 14 0% .222 48.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases0% Home Runs0% Singles30% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts70% Walks40% RBIs20% Runs Scored10% Hits + Runs + RBIs40% Stolen Bases0%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.3
Our model 68% OVER +10.7% edge S
1 vSEA 07-26 1 vSEA 07-27 0 @TBR 07-28 0 @TBR 07-29 0 @TBR 07-30 0 @HOU 07-31 0 @HOU 08-01 0 @HOU 08-02 0 vSFG 08-03 1 vSFG 08-04
L5 20% 1/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 54% 43/79 2025 8% 1/13
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.5 Plate Appearances avg 3.5
4 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 3 4 Total Bases avg 0.3
1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.0
2 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 2 1
Tonight's lines 2026-08-05 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +650 +0.4 Sign in to save —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 31% — +240 +1.6 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-133 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1400
Price legs
Splits Career n=198 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-03
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
49-185 .265 .297 .032 3 0 1 13 16.2% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
13-47 .277 .277 .000 0 0 0 3 12.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
36-138 .261 .304 .043 3 0 1 10 17.4% Last 15 days
recent form
6-40 .150 .150 .000 0 0 0 5 25.0% @ Globe Life Field
tonight's stadium
1411-5036 .280 .284 .004 18 0 0 386 15.5%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.241
wOBA 0.270
delta +0.029 hot
n=198 PA
Spray chart 174 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Carson Whisenhunt's mix Balls in play 174
HR rate 0.6%
Hard-hit (95+) 23%
Avg exit velo 81.7 mph
Ground ball 61%
Line drive 20%
Fly ball 14%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-04 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-08-03 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-3 · 2 K 2026-08-02 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-1 · 1 K 2026-08-01 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-3 · 2 K 2026-07-31 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-07-30 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-07-29 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-07-28 4 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-07-27 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-07-26 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Nicky Lopez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.