Isaac Paredes

3B · RHB · RHP · HOU

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

ATL

Starter

Martín Pérez (LHP)

Stadium

Daikin Park

Model HR%

15.7%

Model Hits%

68.5%

Model K%

31.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+4.9% edgemodel 69% · grade B

Why: NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher: -39.1% lift over 377 games · strong vs the Cutter (25% usage, .356 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	69%	+4.9%	80%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+1.5%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Isaac Paredes, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	17-5	77%	+40.7%
A	7-9	44%	+65.6%
B	5-6	45%	-13.3%

Combined 29-20 · n=49 · ROI +36.7% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 64%

Matchup

Isaac Paredes (RHB) vs Martín Pérez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Martín Pérez LHP · season · 138.4 IP · 595 BF

BAA

.225

wOBA

.332

SLG

.353

ISO

.128

WHIP

1.33

HR/9

0.85

BB%

10.9%

17.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.3%

HH%

36.2%

FB%

28.7%

HR/FB%

12.2%

Isaac Paredes hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	139-549	.253	.421	.168	21	13.4%	16.0%
vs LHP	36-134	.269	.418	.149	3	10.1%	17.9%

Pitch-type matchup

Martín Pérez's arsenal × how Isaac Paredes hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Martín Pérez throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
Changeup	30%	82.5	30%	.342
Sinker	30%	89.7	8%	.376
TOPCutter	25%	86.1	14%	.471
Curveball	9%	76.8	24%	.385
Four-Seam	5%	90.0	11%	.285

Isaac Paredes vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
Changeup	253	24%	.270	85.8
Sinker	602	7%	.336	91.9
TOPCutter	237	14%	.356	85.2
Curveball	174	19%	.273	85.7
Four-Seam	788	10%	.356	88.5

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.0

Our model69% OVER+4.9% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 1.0

Singlesavg 0.5

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 2.1

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	B	9%	—	+425	+0.9	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	69%	+4.9%	-175	+2.7	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	B	26%	+3.3%	+320	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	16%	+1.5%	+605	+0.5	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	10%	—	+199	+2.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+600	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	48%	—	+115	+1.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	11%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	32%	—	-137	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	35%	—	+159	+0.7	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=634 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	139-549	.253	.421	.168	27	1	21	85	16.0%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	36-134	.269	.418	.149	9	1	3	15	17.9%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	103-415	.248	.422	.173	18	0	18	70	15.4%
Last 15 days recent form	12-45	.267	.489	.222	1	0	3	5	24.4%
vs ATL tonight's opponent (full roster)	7-35	.200	.286	.086	0	0	1	5	28.6%
@ Daikin Park tonight's stadium	3250-12524	.260	.430	.171	468	9	550	1486	10.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.310

wOBA0.336

delta+0.026 hot

n=634 PA

Spray chart

773 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing out

Balls in play773

HR rate5.3%

Hard-hit (95+)31%

Avg exit velo86.5 mph

Ground ball29%

Line drive27%

Fly ball31%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-39.1%significant

n=422 games · 3/45 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

-30.9%significant

n=404 games · 29/215 HR when active

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+23.9%significant

n=345 games · 13/59 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

1 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Mixed signals tonight

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+49% HR rate when playing at home.
−47% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
−31% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

1.72× HR rate

149 yes / 262 no · 66 HRs

Playing at hometonight

+49%

213 yes / 209 no · 68 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight

0.53× HR rate

61 yes / 234 no · 47 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

0.61× HR rate

45 yes / 377 no · 68 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+36%

180 yes / 242 no · 68 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight

−31%

215 yes / 189 no · 68 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−29%

52 yes / 370 no · 68 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−29%

184 yes / 231 no · 66 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−25%

17 yes / 404 no · 68 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+24%

59 yes / 286 no · 60 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−21%

281 yes / 141 no · 68 HRs

// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+19%

196 yes / 226 no · 68 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−17%

160 yes / 253 no · 68 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+14%

316 yes / 105 no · 68 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+14%

76 yes / 346 no · 68 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−13%

4 yes / 407 no · 66 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+13%

59 yes / 361 no · 68 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+12%

304 yes / 116 no · 68 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−11%

63 yes / 339 no · 66 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−10%

63 yes / 357 no · 68 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−9%

56 yes / 366 no · 68 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+8%

74 yes / 348 no · 68 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

neutral

257 yes / 165 no · 68 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

119 yes / 303 no · 68 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 420 no · 68 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 422 no · 68 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 422 no · 68 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	2	0	1	1	0	2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-09-18	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-17	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-16	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K
2026-09-15	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-13	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-09-12	4	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	4	1	1	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-10	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-09	4	2	0	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Isaac Paredes across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.