Isaac Paredes

3B · RHB · RHP · HOU

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

TOR

Starter

Dylan Cease (RHP)

Stadium

Rogers Centre

Model HR%

13.5%

Model Hits%

68.8%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+14.5% edgemodel 69% · grade S

Why: NOT ≥1 career HR vs this pitcher: -55.7% lift over 313 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (40% usage, .356 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	69%	+14.5%	60%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	13%	+1.4%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Isaac Paredes, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-2	60%	+0.8%
A	0-1	0%	-100.0%
B	1-3	25%	+0.0%

Combined 4-6 · n=10 · ROI -9.6% · avg CLV +0.4 pts · beat close 67%

Matchup

Isaac Paredes (RHB) vs Dylan Cease RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Dylan Cease RHP · season · 75.3 IP · 324 BF

BAA

.205

wOBA

.290

SLG

.288

ISO

.083

WHIP

1.26

HR/9

0.60

BB%

11.1%

35.8%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

36.4%

FB%

27.3%

HR/FB%

15.2%

Isaac Paredes hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	61-262	.233	.405	.172	10	13.8%	19.8%
vs RHP	44-197	.223	.421	.198	10	13.6%	19.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Dylan Cease's arsenal × how Isaac Paredes hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Dylan Cease throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	40%	97.3	23%	.361
Slider	38%	89.1	43%	.373
Knuckle Curve	8%	82.4	35%	.476
Sinker	6%	96.1	12%	.341
Changeup	4%	83.0	57%	.406
Sweeper	4%	84.3	26%	.306

Isaac Paredes vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	788	10%	.356	88.5
Slider	490	23%	.256	82.2
Knuckle Curve	43	26%	.433	85.3
Sinker	602	7%	.336	91.9
Changeup	253	24%	.270	85.8
Sweeper	250	22%	.367	85.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

60%6/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Our model69% OVER+14.5% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.6

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.4

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.7

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+536	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	69%	+14.5%	-119	-0.2	Sign in
1.5	OVER	A	26%	+6.6%	+380	+0.0	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-0.2%	+2000	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	13%	+1.4%	+732	+0.0	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	9%	—	+212	+0.2	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+600	+1.8	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	S	49%	—	+155	+0.0	—
1.5	—	PASS	12%	—	+800	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	S	42%	—	+180	+0.0	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=304 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	61-262	.233	.405	.172	15	0	10	42	19.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	17-65	.262	.354	.092	6	0	0	11	20.0%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	44-197	.223	.421	.198	9	0	10	31	19.8%
Last 15 days recent form	7-37	.189	.351	.162	3	0	1	10	24.3%
vs Dylan Cease tonight's starting pitcher	1-4	.250	.250	.000	0	0	0	1	25.0%
vs TOR tonight's opponent (full roster)	8-39	.205	.462	.256	2	1	2	3	28.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.306

wOBA0.328

delta+0.022 hot

n=304 PA

Spray chart

524 balls in play since 2025· wind 8 mph blowing in

Balls in play524

HR rate5.7%

Hard-hit (95+)33%

Avg exit velo87.4 mph

Ground ball30%

Line drive26%

Fly ball32%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

-55.7%significant

n=345 games · 0/32 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+54.6%significant

n=344 games · 33/159 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

-29.2%significant

n=328 games · 24/174 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16

// TONIGHT

8 / 12FAVORABLE

Mixed, leaning favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+69% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
-56% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.
-52% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

1.69× HR rate

115 yes / 230 no · 56 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

1.65× HR rate

96 yes / 238 no · 54 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

0.44× HR rate

32 yes / 313 no · 56 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

1.55× HR rate

159 yes / 185 no · 56 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

0.48× HR rate

46 yes / 179 no · 36 HRs

Playing at home

+44%

173 yes / 172 no · 56 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

−32%

137 yes / 198 no · 56 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−31%

155 yes / 183 no · 54 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+30%

52 yes / 233 no · 49 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−29%

174 yes / 154 no · 56 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

−29%

43 yes / 302 no · 56 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−26%

47 yes / 278 no · 54 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−24%

16 yes / 328 no · 56 HRs

// 15 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−20%

207 yes / 138 no · 56 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+20%

198 yes / 147 no · 56 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+17%

251 yes / 93 no · 56 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

−15%

107 yes / 238 no · 56 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+14%

58 yes / 286 no · 56 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−13%

4 yes / 330 no · 54 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−9%

49 yes / 296 no · 56 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

−7%

60 yes / 282 no · 56 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+6%

202 yes / 140 no · 56 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

58 yes / 286 no · 56 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

neutral

54 yes / 288 no · 56 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 345 no · 56 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 345 no · 56 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 342 no · 56 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	3	0	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-06-20	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-06-19	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-17	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-06-16	4	1	1	0	1	2	1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-15	4	1	0	1	2	0	1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB
2026-06-13	5	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-12	5	0	0	0	1	0	0-for-4 · 1 BB
2026-06-10	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-09	4	0	0	0	2	1	0-for-2 · 2 BB · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Isaac Paredes across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.