← BACK TO SLATE
Isaac Paredes
3B · RHB · RHP · HOU
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Isaac Paredes, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 9-3 | 75% | +46.2% |
| A | 3-3 | 50% | +22.2% |
| B | 4-7 | 36% | -38.2% |
Combined 16-13 · n=29 · ROI +9.2% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 63%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.7Plate Appearancesavg 4.7
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.9
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.6
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=467 PA · 2026-03-18 → 2026-08-03
xStats luck
xwOBA0.314
wOBA0.329
delta+0.015 hot
n=467 PA
Spray chart
649 balls in play since 2025Balls in play649
HR rate5.4%
Hard-hit (95+)31%
Avg exit velo86.6 mph
Ground ball29%
Line drive27%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-53.3%significant
n=385 games · 1/41 HR when active
-33.7%significant
n=368 games · 25/192 HR when active
+38.8%significant
n=385 games · 35/181 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
1.68× HR rate
126 yes / 248 no · 60 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.57× HR rate
155 yes / 230 no · 62 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
0.43× HR rate
54 yes / 209 no · 42 HRs
Playing at home
1.55× HR rate
194 yes / 191 no · 62 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
0.47× HR rate
41 yes / 344 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+39%
181 yes / 204 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−34%
192 yes / 176 no · 62 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−34%
169 yes / 209 no · 60 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−32%
46 yes / 339 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+31%
57 yes / 261 no · 54 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−25%
17 yes / 367 no · 62 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
−24%
143 yes / 233 no · 62 HRs
// 16 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−19%
246 yes / 139 no · 62 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−14%
107 yes / 278 no · 62 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−13%
4 yes / 370 no · 60 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+10%
226 yes / 159 no · 62 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+8%
284 yes / 100 no · 62 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+6%
266 yes / 117 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+5%
52 yes / 331 no · 62 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
53 yes / 332 no · 62 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
58 yes / 307 no · 60 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
71 yes / 314 no · 62 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
64 yes / 321 no · 62 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
63 yes / 320 no · 62 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 383 no · 62 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 385 no · 62 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 385 no · 62 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Isaac Paredes across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.