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Hits OVER 0.5 +5.7% edge model 65% · grade A
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 65% +5.7% 30% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Tristan Peters, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 29-11 73% +52.4% A 12-9 57% +6.4% B 9-7 56% +18.5%
Combined 50-27 · n=77 · ROI +32.8% · avg CLV -2.2 pts · beat close 27%
Matchup Tristan Peters (LHB) vs Troy Melton RHP favors batter favors pitcher Troy Melton RHP · season · 104.9 IP · 451 BF
Tristan Peters hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 118-438 .269 .447 .178 12 10.1% 20.3% vs RHP 107-382 .280 .469 .188 11 9.0% 19.6%
Pitch-type matchup Troy Melton's arsenal × how Tristan Peters hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Troy Melton throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 45% 97.2 25% .381 Slider 22% 85.6 26% .267 Sinker 11% 95.8 11% .404 Splitter 10% 88.5 24% .264 Cutter 9% 90.9 12% .496 Curveball 4% 78.8 8% .313
Tristan Peters vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 232 23% .309 74.8 Slider 74 38% .302 87.8 Sinker 97 12% .246 82.7 Splitter 18 23% .390 74.4 Cutter 46 15% .440 91.7 Curveball 39 22% .185 80.9
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits30% Total Bases10% Home Runs0% Singles20% Doubles10% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks40% RBIs10% Runs Scored20% Hits + Runs + RBIs50% Stolen Bases0%
30% 3/10 · L10 · avg 0.3
Our model 65% OVER +5.7% edge A
0 vPIT 09-08 1 vPIT 09-09 0 vPIT 09-10 0 @STL 09-11 1 @STL 09-12 1 @STL 09-13 0 @CLE 09-14 0 @CLE 09-15 0 @CLE 09-16 0 vDET 09-18
L5 20% 1/5 L10 30% 3/10 L20 45% 9/20 2026 54% 86/160 2025 30% 3/10
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.7 Plate Appearances avg 3.7
3 4 3 3 5 4 5 4 4 2 Total Bases avg 0.4
0 1 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 1.0
0 1 2 1 1 0 1 2 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 30% — +175 +4.1 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-165 Hits OVER 1.5+340 Home Runs UNDER 0.5-3335
Price legs
Splits Career n=487 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-09-18
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
118-438 .269 .447 .178 32 5 12 49 20.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
11-56 .196 .304 .107 3 0 1 11 25.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
107-382 .280 .469 .188 29 5 11 38 19.6% Last 15 days
recent form
7-38 .184 .289 .105 4 0 0 8 28.9% vs Troy Melton
tonight's starting pitcher
3-6 .500 .667 .167 1 0 0 1 16.7% vs DET
tonight's opponent (full roster)
12-25 .480 .760 .280 4 0 1 3 12.0% @ Rate Field
tonight's stadium
4727-17652 .268 .542 .274 1405 244 983 1911 25.1%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.303
wOBA 0.343
delta +0.040 hot
n=487 PA
Spray chart 361 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Troy Melton's mix Balls in play 361
HR rate 3.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 35%
Avg exit velo 84.8 mph
Ground ball 40%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-18 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-1 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-16 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-09-15 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-3 · 2 R · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-09-14 5 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-13 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B 2026-09-12 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-09-11 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-2 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-09-10 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-3 · 2 K 2026-09-09 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 K 2026-09-08 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Tristan Peters across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.