← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +18.3% edge model 71% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Sweeper (22% usage, .514 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 71% +18.3% 40% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 11% +4.1% 10% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Tristan Peters, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 3-8 27% -52.9% A 3-7 30% -25.7% B 0-1 0% -100.0%
Combined 6-16 · n=22 · ROI -42.7% · avg CLV -5.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Tristan Peters (LHB) vs Gavin Williams RHP favors batter favors pitcher Gavin Williams RHP · season · 95.6 IP · 411 BF
Tristan Peters hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 57-204 .279 .431 .152 3 9.3% 20.6% vs RHP 54-178 .303 .472 .169 3 9.6% 20.2%
Pitch-type matchup Gavin Williams's arsenal × how Tristan Peters hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Gavin Williams throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA Four-Seam 35% 96.6 21% .432 TOP Sweeper22% 86.6 45% .395 Curveball 22% 82.1 31% .338 TOP Cutter12% 91.7 18% .349 Sinker 9% 95.9 9% .392 Changeup 0% 88.2 0% —
Tristan Peters vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV Four-Seam 232 23% .309 74.8 TOP Sweeper31 18% .514 83.8 Curveball 39 22% .185 80.9 TOP Cutter46 15% .440 91.7 Sinker 97 12% .246 82.7 Changeup 91 20% .447 83.3
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits40% Total Bases30% Home Runs10% Singles20% Doubles10% Triples10% Strikeouts50% Walks30% RBIs40% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs60% Stolen Bases0%
40% 4/10 · L10 · avg 0.5
Our model 71% OVER +18.3% edge S
0 vATL 06-10 1 vLAD 06-12 1 vLAD 06-13 0 vLAD 06-14 1 @NYY 06-16 0 @NYY 06-17 0 @NYY 06-18 0 @DET 06-19 0 @DET 06-20 2 @DET 06-21
L5 20% 1/5 L10 40% 4/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 55% 47/85 2025 30% 3/10
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.0 Plate Appearances avg 3.0
3 4 3 3 3 1 3 4 2 4 Total Bases avg 1.1
0 3 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 Home Runs avg 0.1
0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.6
1 1 0 1 0 0 0 2 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 12% — +670 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 71% +18.3% -110 -3.8 Sign in 1.5 OVER S 29% +14.5% +600 -2.4 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 6% +2.4% +3000 -1.5 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 11% +4.1% +1317 -0.2 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 9% — +336 -1.1 — 1.5 — PASS 5% — +1000 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 51% — +150 -1.7 — 1.5 — B 13% — +1000 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — S 45% — +280 -1.5 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -110 +600 +3000 +1317
Price legs
Splits Career n=225 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
57-204 .279 .431 .152 16 3 3 21 20.6% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
3-26 .115 .154 .038 1 0 0 2 23.1% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
54-178 .303 .472 .169 15 3 3 19 20.2% Last 15 days
recent form
5-27 .185 .444 .259 2 1 1 5 25.9% @ Rate Field
tonight's stadium
216-1494 .145 .505 .360 0 110 106 152 30.7%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.272
wOBA 0.321
delta +0.049 hot
n=225 PA
Spray chart 174 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Gavin Williams's mix Balls in play 174
HR rate 1.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 28%
Avg exit velo 81.5 mph
Ground ball 45%
Line drive 25%
Fly ball 22%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-20 2 0 0 0 0 1 1 0-for-1 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-19 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K 2026-06-18 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 · 1 R 2026-06-17 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-0 · 1 BB 2026-06-16 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 R 2026-06-14 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K 2026-06-13 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-12 4 1 0 1 0 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 3B · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-10 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-3 · 1 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Tristan Peters across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
