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Home Runs OVER 0.5 +4.1% edge model 11% · grade B
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .410 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Home Runs OVER 0.5 11% +4.1% 20% CAUTION Hits UNDER 1.5 73% +2.6% 70% LEAN
Matchup Gabriel Moreno (RHB) vs Andre Pallante RHP favors batter favors pitcher Andre Pallante RHP · season · 74.9 IP · 322 BF
Gabriel Moreno hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 50-183 .273 .475 .202 8 12.4% 20.2% vs RHP 39-133 .293 .511 .218 6 14.7% 20.3%
Pitch-type matchup Andre Pallante's arsenal × how Gabriel Moreno hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Andre Pallante throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam41% 94.5 13% .373 Slider 28% 87.4 33% .320 Knuckle Curve 15% 78.0 36% .359 TOP Sinker15% 95.0 12% .273 Splitter 1% 87.3 33% .150 Changeup 0% 90.5 0% .222 Sweeper 0% 83.0 0% —
Gabriel Moreno vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam620 15% .410 91.1 Slider 276 26% .335 88.6 Knuckle Curve 28 25% .125 87.4 TOP Sinker368 4% .410 89.9 Splitter 54 39% .291 94.8 Changeup 149 17% .388 87.5 Sweeper 155 18% .492 92.2
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits90% Total Bases60% Home Runs20% Singles60% Doubles30% Triples0% Strikeouts40% Walks60% RBIs40% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases10%
90% 9/10 · L10 · avg 1.3
Our model 69% OVER +0.4% edge PASS
1 @MIA 06-09 2 @MIA 06-10 0 @MIA 06-11 1 @CIN 06-12 2 @CIN 06-13 1 @CIN 06-14 1 vLAA 06-15 3 vLAA 06-17 1 vMIN 06-19 1 vMIN 06-21
L5 100% 5/5 L10 90% 9/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 57% 36/63 2025 66% 56/85
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.5 Plate Appearances avg 4.5
5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 Total Bases avg 2.2
4 2 0 2 3 4 1 4 1 1 Home Runs avg 0.2
1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.5
0 0 2 1 0 1 0 0 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 10% — +425 +0.0 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 OVER PASS 69% +0.4% -222 -0.5 Sign in BEST 1.5UNDER PASS 73% +2.6% -300 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -6.1% +800 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 11% +4.1% +1259 +0.2 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 8% — +169 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 5% — +500 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 53% — -150 +0.0 — 1.5 — A 12% — +400 +0.0 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 36% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 40% — +156 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -222 -300 +800 +1259
Price legs
Splits Career n=209 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-06-19
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
50-183 .273 .475 .202 13 0 8 26 20.2% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
11-50 .220 .380 .160 2 0 2 3 20.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
39-133 .293 .511 .218 11 0 6 23 20.3% Last 15 days
recent form
14-38 .368 .684 .316 3 0 3 7 13.2% vs STL
tonight's opponent (full roster)
3-21 .143 .143 .000 0 0 0 1 14.3%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.360
wOBA 0.370
delta +0.010 hot
n=207 PA
// SPRAY PROFILE NOT YET AVAILABLE — needs ≥1 season of batted-ball data
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-19 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-17 4 3 1 0 0 1 0 3-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 BB 2026-06-15 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 RBI 2026-06-14 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 2-for-5 · 1 2B 2026-06-12 5 1 1 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-11 4 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-06-10 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 2-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-09 5 1 0 0 1 2 0 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Gabriel Moreno across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
