Gabriel Moreno

C · RHB · RHP · ARI

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

NYY

Starter

Will Warren (RHP)

Stadium

Chase Field

Model HR%

10.4%

Model Hits%

65.3%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+5.0% edgemodel 35% · grade B

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	35%	+5.0%	20%	CAUTION
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	10%	+1.4%	30%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Gabriel Moreno, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	9-3	75%	+126.8%
A	8-11	42%	+146.5%
B	8-10	44%	+84.8%

Combined 25-24 · n=49 · ROI +119.0% · avg CLV -0.0 pts · beat close 23%

Matchup

Gabriel Moreno (RHB) vs Will Warren RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Will Warren RHP · season · 156.7 IP · 674 BF

BAA

.249

wOBA

.334

SLG

.421

ISO

.172

WHIP

1.34

HR/9

1.21

BB%

8.3%

23.3%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.2%

HH%

46.3%

FB%

29.1%

HR/FB%

17.9%

Gabriel Moreno hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	139-466	.298	.483	.185	17	12.2%	17.2%
vs RHP	105-332	.316	.515	.199	13	13.5%	17.5%

Pitch-type matchup

Will Warren's arsenal × how Gabriel Moreno hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Will Warren throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	42%	93.4	21%	.382
TOPSinker	22%	93.3	15%	.368
TOPSweeper	21%	83.2	28%	.443
Changeup	9%	86.9	32%	.371
Curveball	6%	80.4	29%	.402

Gabriel Moreno vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	620	15%	.410	91.1
TOPSinker	368	4%	.410	89.9
TOPSweeper	155	18%	.492	92.2
Changeup	149	17%	.388	87.5
Curveball	113	27%	.379	93.7

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model35% UNDER+5.0% edgeB

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 0.9

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 2.3

Home Runsavg 0.3

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.5

Tonight's lines

2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	7%	—	+375	+1.1	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	B	35%	+5.0%	+237	-4.9	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	PASS	76%	-0.4%	-320	+6.2	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	PASS	10%	+1.4%	+1010	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	6%	—	+210	+0.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	4%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	51%	—	-140	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	14%	—	+475	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	31%	—	+139	+0.2	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=531 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-09-18

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	139-466	.298	.483	.185	33	1	17	65	17.2%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	34-134	.254	.403	.149	8	0	4	13	16.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	105-332	.316	.515	.199	25	1	13	52	17.5%
Last 15 days recent form	17-49	.347	.592	.245	3	0	3	5	14.3%
vs NYY tonight's opponent (full roster)	7-36	.194	.194	.000	0	0	0	4	25.0%
@ Chase Field tonight's stadium	2371-8517	.278	.523	.245	566	18	495	1575	12.8%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.352

wOBA0.373

delta+0.021 hot

n=529 PA

Spray chart

620 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing out

Balls in play620

HR rate4.4%

Hard-hit (95+)43%

Avg exit velo89.6 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive27%

Fly ball25%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-19	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-09-18	4	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-16	4	3	1	1	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-15	6	2	0	1	2	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 SB · 2 BB · 1 K
2026-09-14	5	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-13	5	1	0	1	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-12	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-11	5	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-09	1	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-1 · 1 K
2026-09-08	6	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 BB

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Gabriel Moreno across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.