← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 1.5 +1.4% edge model 68% · grade PASS
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 1.5 68% +1.4% 80% LEAN Home Runs OVER 0.5 8% +0.9% 0% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Otto Lopez, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 2-3 40% -6.1% A 2-0 100% +55.9% B 3-2 60% +27.1%
Combined 7-5 · n=12 · ROI +18.1% · avg CLV -0.9 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Otto Lopez (RHB) vs Kumar Rocker RHP favors batter favors pitcher Kumar Rocker RHP · season · 74.2 IP · 319 BF
Otto Lopez hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 103-321 .321 .455 .134 6 5.3% 15.3% vs RHP 69-243 .284 .407 .123 5 6.2% 17.3%
Pitch-type matchup Kumar Rocker's arsenal × how Otto Lopez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Kumar Rocker throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker30% 95.1 8% .371 TOP Slider24% 83.9 38% .363 Cutter 17% 90.2 31% .433 TOP Four-Seam16% 95.7 15% .415 Changeup 6% 89.3 24% .502 Curveball 6% 77.8 52% .647 Pitchout 0% 90.8 — —
Otto Lopez vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker608 4% .383 92.8 TOP Slider525 30% .390 87.6 Cutter 208 8% .316 89.5 TOP Four-Seam785 8% .410 93.8 Changeup 292 29% .249 83.1 Curveball 172 32% .348 84.3 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases40% Home Runs0% Singles60% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts20% Walks30% RBIs30% Runs Scored50% Hits + Runs + RBIs90% Stolen Bases30%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 1.0
Our model 75% OVER -3.1% edge PASS
2 vARI 06-11 1 @PIT 06-12 2 @PIT 06-13 1 @PIT 06-14 0 @PHI 06-15 1 @PHI 06-16 0 @PHI 06-17 1 vSFG 06-19 1 vSFG 06-20 1 vSFG 06-21
L5 80% 4/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 75% 15/20 2026 76% 66/87 2025 66% 98/149
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.3 Plate Appearances avg 4.3
4 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 5 3 Total Bases avg 1.2
2 1 2 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 Home Runs avg 0.0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.2
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 8% — +350 +2.2 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 OVER PASS 75% -3.1% -350 +5.6 Sign in BEST 1.5UNDER PASS 68% +1.4% -196 -3.2 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 7% -6.1% +650 +2.2 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 8% +0.9% +1236 -0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 6% — +210 -2.5 — 1.5 — B 3% — +700 -2.9 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 64% — -190 +5.5 — 1.5 — PASS 19% — +340 +2.7 —
Strikeouts
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 36% — -137 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 42% — +126 +3.1 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -350 -196 +650 +1236
Price legs
Splits Career n=339 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
103-321 .321 .455 .134 19 3 6 18 15.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
34-78 .436 .603 .167 6 2 1 2 9.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
69-243 .284 .407 .123 13 1 5 16 17.3% Last 15 days
recent form
16-50 .320 .440 .120 4 1 0 4 6.0% vs TEX
tonight's opponent (full roster)
6-27 .222 .333 .111 0 0 1 2 14.8% @ loanDepot park
tonight's stadium
1540-4456 .346 .527 .181 533 137 0 0 14.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.322
wOBA 0.325
delta +0.003 hot
n=337 PA
Spray chart 749 balls in play since 2025 · wind 9 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Kumar Rocker's mix Balls in play 749
HR rate 2.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 39%
Avg exit velo 88.3 mph
Ground ball 50%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 23%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 RBI 2026-06-20 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 2 R · 1 SB 2026-06-19 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 SB · 1 K 2026-06-17 5 0 0 0 0 2 0 0-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB 2026-06-16 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 1-for-4 · 1 2B 2026-06-15 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-14 5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-13 4 2 0 0 0 1 0 2-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-12 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R 2026-06-11 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 1 R · 2 SB
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Otto Lopez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
