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Yainer Diaz
C · RHB · HOU
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Yainer Diaz, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 8-6 | 57% | +18.4% |
| A | 4-3 | 57% | -11.1% |
| B | 1-2 | 33% | -51.0% |
Combined 13-11 · n=24 · ROI +1.1% · avg CLV -2.7 pts · beat close 75%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8Plate Appearancesavg 3.8
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 0.8
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 2.5
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 0.4
Walksavg 0.1
Tonight's lines
2026-09-24 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=356 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-23
xStats luck
xwOBA0.309
wOBA0.332
delta+0.023 hot
n=354 PA
Spray chart
735 balls in play since 2025Balls in play735
HR rate4.5%
Hard-hit (95+)44%
Avg exit velo90.6 mph
Ground ball50%
Line drive23%
Fly ball21%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+16.2%small sample
n=288 games · 23/141 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
1 / 2HELPING · IN PLAY
Mixed signals tonight
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +107% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
- −29% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
2.07× HR rate
181 yes / 108 no · 43 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.74× HR rate
134 yes / 156 no · 43 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
−29%
78 yes / 212 no · 43 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−29%
37 yes / 252 no · 43 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+16%
141 yes / 147 no · 43 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−10%
32 yes / 258 no · 43 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−6%
44 yes / 246 no · 43 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
153 yes / 137 no · 43 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Yainer Diaz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.