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Seiya Suzuki
RF · RHB · RHP · CHC
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 0.5+4.0% edgemodel 39% · grade B
Why: struggles vs the Slider (36% usage, .287 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Seiya Suzuki, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-6 | 63% | +90.1% |
| A | 7-10 | 41% | -14.7% |
| B | 3-8 | 27% | +6.6% |
Combined 20-24 · n=44 · ROI +28.7% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 43%
Matchup
Seiya Suzuki (RHB) vs Chase Burns RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Chase Burns's arsenal × how Seiya Suzuki hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.8
Tonight's lines
2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=598 PA · 2026-04-10 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.338
wOBA0.367
delta+0.029 hot
n=597 PA
Spray chart
803 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing inBalls in play803
HR rate7.6%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo90.1 mph
Ground ball33%
Line drive25%
Fly ball34%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+40.0%significant
n=430 games · 18/72 HR when active
+33.9%significant
n=445 games · 20/86 HR when active
+24.8%significant
n=445 games · 38/189 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +28% HR rate when vs short-leash starter (avg ip < 5.0).
- +25% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- +22% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+40%
72 yes / 358 no · 76 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
0.63× HR rate
33 yes / 403 no · 75 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+37%
100 yes / 217 no · 57 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
0.66× HR rate
349 yes / 95 no · 77 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+34%
86 yes / 359 no · 78 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)tonight
+28%
187 yes / 254 no · 77 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−27%
256 yes / 189 no · 78 HRs
Playing at home
+26%
222 yes / 223 no · 78 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+25%
189 yes / 256 no · 78 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+23%
62 yes / 327 no · 70 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+22%
121 yes / 324 no · 78 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
+17%
21 yes / 423 no · 77 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−14%
219 yes / 226 no · 78 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+14%
48 yes / 397 no · 78 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−10%
298 yes / 147 no · 78 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−10%
248 yes / 182 no · 75 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+10%
339 yes / 106 no · 78 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−9%
9 yes / 436 no · 78 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+7%
180 yes / 260 no · 77 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−7%
104 yes / 341 no · 78 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+5%
70 yes / 375 no · 78 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
101 yes / 335 no · 75 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
49 yes / 396 no · 78 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 444 no · 78 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
65 yes / 380 no · 78 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
102 yes / 343 no · 78 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 445 no · 78 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Seiya Suzuki across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.