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Alec Burleson
1B · LHB · LHP · STL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 1.5+5.2% edgemodel 38% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (31% usage, .450 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Alec Burleson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-7 | 61% | +16.9% |
| A | 7-7 | 50% | -16.0% |
| B | 9-11 | 45% | +41.0% |
Combined 27-25 · n=52 · ROI +17.3% · avg CLV -1.1 pts · beat close 41%
Matchup
Alec Burleson (LHB) vs Jake Irvin RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Jake Irvin's arsenal × how Alec Burleson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.8
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.0
Walksavg 0.7
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=661 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16
xStats luck
xwOBA0.367
wOBA0.356
delta−0.011 due
n=660 PA
Spray chart
920 balls in play since 2025Balls in play920
HR rate4.7%
Hard-hit (95+)48%
Avg exit velo91.6 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive24%
Fly ball27%
// PLAYER DNA
No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Alec Burleson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.