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Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits UNDER 1.5 72% -0.5% 70% PASS Home Runs OVER 0.5 21% -0.9% 10% PASS
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Alec Burleson, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 8-4 67% +25.3% A 7-8 47% -6.6% B 8-5 62% +84.7%
Combined 23-17 · n=40 · ROI +32.6% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 48%
Matchup Alec Burleson (LHB) vs Will Warren RHP favors batter favors pitcher Will Warren RHP · season · 117.7 IP · 506 BF
Alec Burleson hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 131-450 .291 .478 .187 18 9.1% 17.3% vs RHP 104-310 .335 .561 .226 15 11.2% 18.4%
Pitch-type matchup Will Warren's arsenal × how Alec Burleson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Will Warren throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam42% 93.4 21% .382 Sinker 22% 93.3 15% .368 TOP Sweeper21% 83.2 28% .443 Changeup 9% 86.9 32% .371 Curveball 6% 80.4 29% .402
Alec Burleson vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam833 18% .450 93.5 Sinker 462 11% .343 90.6 TOP Sweeper183 28% .467 89.9 Changeup 374 19% .321 87.1 Curveball 194 20% .394 92.3
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases40% Home Runs10% Singles50% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts50% Walks60% RBIs20% Runs Scored30% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases0%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.2
Our model 31% UNDER -2.2% edge PASS
3 vCIN 07-26 0 vCHC 07-27 0 vCHC 07-28 1 vCHC 07-29 1 vCHC 07-30 1 @TOR 07-31 2 @TOR 08-01 1 @TOR 08-02 3 @NYY 08-03 0 @NYY 08-04
L5 80% 4/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 70% 14/20 2026 66% 86/130 2025 66% 95/144
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.1 Plate Appearances avg 4.1
5 4 3 4 5 4 5 5 5 1 Total Bases avg 2.3
4 0 0 1 1 2 2 1 12 0 Home Runs avg 0.3
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
2 0 0 2 0 2 0 1 1 0
Tonight's lines 2026-08-05 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 38% — +120 +1.4 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't +205 -260 +800 +350
Price legs
Splits Career n=495 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-03
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
131-450 .291 .478 .187 28 1 18 45 17.3% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
27-140 .193 .293 .100 5 0 3 6 15.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
104-310 .335 .561 .226 23 1 15 39 18.4% Last 15 days
recent form
18-51 .353 .608 .255 4 0 3 6 23.5% vs Will Warren
tonight's starting pitcher
2-4 .500 .500 .000 0 0 0 1 0.0% vs NYY
tonight's opponent (full roster)
11-33 .333 .727 .394 2 1 3 2 12.1% @ Yankee Stadium
tonight's stadium
552-920 .600 2.400 1.800 0 0 552 0 20.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.368
wOBA 0.358
delta −0.010 due
n=494 PA
Spray chart 810 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Will Warren's mix Balls in play 810
HR rate 4.7%
Hard-hit (95+) 47%
Avg exit velo 91.4 mph
Ground ball 42%
Line drive 24%
Fly ball 28%
// PLAYER DNA
No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-08-04 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-0 · 1 BB 2026-08-03 5 3 0 0 3 0 1 3-for-5 · 3 HR · 6 RBI · 3 R · 1 K 2026-08-02 5 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-08-01 5 2 0 0 0 1 0 2-for-4 · 1 BB 2026-07-31 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 BB · 2 K 2026-07-30 5 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-4 · 1 BB 2026-07-29 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-07-28 3 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-2 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-07-27 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-4 2026-07-26 5 3 1 0 0 0 2 3-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Alec Burleson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
