Brayan Rocchio

SS · SHB · RHP · CLE

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

NYM

Starter

Sean Manaea (LHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

11.9%

Model Hits%

68.6%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+9.4% edgemodel 69% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (53% usage, .356 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	69%	+9.4%	30%	CAUTION
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	12%	+5.1%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Brayan Rocchio, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	13-7	65%	+32.2%
A	5-0	100%	+224.0%
B	5-9	36%	-43.4%

Combined 23-16 · n=39 · ROI +29.6% · avg CLV +0.2 pts · beat close 36%

Matchup

Brayan Rocchio (SHB) vs Sean Manaea LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Sean Manaea LHP · season · 96.5 IP · 415 BF

BAA

.251

wOBA

.322

SLG

.435

ISO

.184

WHIP

1.39

HR/9

1.21

BB%

9.6%

22.2%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.2%

HH%

39.7%

FB%

35.8%

HR/FB%

15.7%

Brayan Rocchio hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	102-404	.252	.379	.126	10	8.4%	15.6%
vs LHP	27-123	.220	.358	.138	3	6.8%	16.3%

Pitch-type matchup

Sean Manaea's arsenal × how Brayan Rocchio hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Sean Manaea throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	53%	91.3	19%	.413
Sweeper	34%	76.5	33%	.361
Sinker	6%	89.5	2%	.352
Changeup	6%	84.0	23%	.586
Cutter	1%	84.0	45%	.335

Brayan Rocchio vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	793	12%	.356	88.4
Sweeper	121	28%	.339	84.7
Sinker	282	10%	.296	88.3
Changeup	372	40%	.259	82.3
Cutter	198	10%	.367	85.4

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

30%3/10 · L10 · avg 0.4

Our model69% OVER+9.4% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2

Plate Appearancesavg 4.2

Hitsavg 0.4

Singlesavg 0.2

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 0.6

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.9

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-08-04 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+475	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	69%	+9.4%	-145	+1.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	S	28%	+8.4%	+380	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	5%	-0.1%	+1750	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	12%	+5.1%	+1365	+0.4	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+310	+0.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	5%	—	+900	-1.1	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	54%	—	+130	-1.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	B	15%	—	+800	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	33%	—	+190	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=441 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-08-02

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	102-404	.252	.379	.126	17	2	10	37	15.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	27-123	.220	.358	.138	6	1	3	9	16.3%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	75-281	.267	.388	.121	11	1	7	28	15.3%
Last 15 days recent form	9-54	.167	.278	.111	3	0	1	2	22.2%
vs NYM tonight's opponent (full roster)	1-11	.091	.091	.000	0	0	0	2	27.3%
@ Progressive Field tonight's stadium	3028-13869	.218	.319	.101	302	127	280	972	21.2%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.282

wOBA0.301

delta+0.019 hot

n=440 PA

Spray chart

636 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph cross-wind

Balls in play636

HR rate2.7%

Hard-hit (95+)35%

Avg exit velo86.9 mph

Ground ball44%

Line drive25%

Fly ball25%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-02	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-08-01	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-31	4	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-07-29	5	1	1	0	1	1-for-5 · 1 2B · 1 K
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-07-28	4	0	0	1	0	0-for-3 · 1 BB
2026-07-26	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-25	4	0	0	0	1	0-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-24	4	2	1	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI
2026-07-23	5	0	0	0	2	0-for-5 · 2 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Brayan Rocchio across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.