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Bobby Witt Jr.
SS · RHB · RHP · KCR
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Bobby Witt Jr., by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-8 | 56% | +9.3% |
| A | 11-18 | 38% | -22.3% |
| B | 7-7 | 50% | +71.5% |
Combined 28-33 · n=61 · ROI +8.6% · avg CLV -0.4 pts · beat close 40%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 1.3
Singlesavg 1.0
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.6
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.7
Walksavg 0.2
Splits
Career n=643 PA · 2026-03-20 → 2026-09-27
xStats luck
xwOBA0.374
wOBA0.345
delta−0.029 due
n=642 PA
Spray chart
981 balls in play since 2025Balls in play981
HR rate4.3%
Hard-hit (95+)51%
Avg exit velo92.5 mph
Ground ball37%
Line drive27%
Fly ball28%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+74.6%significant
n=491 games · 24/97 HR when active
+59.4%significant
n=491 games · 21/90 HR when active
+49.7%significant
n=491 games · 21/96 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-11-09
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
1.75× HR rate
97 yes / 394 no · 74 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.59× HR rate
90 yes / 401 no · 74 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.55× HR rate
188 yes / 292 no · 72 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+50%
96 yes / 395 no · 74 HRs
Playing at home
+42%
251 yes / 240 no · 74 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
0.66× HR rate
154 yes / 337 no · 74 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+33%
367 yes / 122 no · 74 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−32%
392 yes / 98 no · 74 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−30%
349 yes / 142 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+29%
211 yes / 280 no · 74 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−27%
240 yes / 246 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+27%
274 yes / 204 no · 69 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+25%
215 yes / 276 no · 74 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−25%
67 yes / 421 no · 74 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−24%
17 yes / 473 no · 74 HRs
// 13 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
−19%
61 yes / 430 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
+18%
70 yes / 342 no · 59 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−15%
50 yes / 438 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−14%
64 yes / 425 no · 74 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
−11%
86 yes / 256 no · 49 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−10%
3 yes / 477 no · 73 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+9%
16 yes / 475 no · 74 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−8%
121 yes / 359 no · 73 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−7%
79 yes / 387 no · 70 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
−7%
2 yes / 489 no · 74 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
1 yes / 488 no · 74 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
6 yes / 485 no · 74 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Bobby Witt Jr. across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.