Miguel Vargas

3B · RHB · RHP · CHW

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CLE

Starter

Parker Messick (LHP)

Stadium

Progressive Field

Model HR%

15.6%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Miguel Vargas, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	18-3	86%	+46.1%
A	8-8	50%	+66.3%
B	9-8	53%	+43.4%

Combined 35-19 · n=54 · ROI +51.2% · avg CLV -0.7 pts · beat close 22%

Matchup

Miguel Vargas (RHB) vs Parker Messick LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Parker Messick LHP · season · 176.0 IP · 757 BF

BAA

.214

wOBA

.280

SLG

.356

ISO

.142

WHIP

1.15

HR/9

1.02

BB%

6.9%

25.9%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.0%

HH%

35.8%

FB%

32.4%

HR/FB%

14.0%

Miguel Vargas hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	137-573	.239	.455	.216	30	14.9%	21.1%
vs LHP	44-162	.272	.556	.284	12	16.5%	20.4%

Pitch-type matchup

Parker Messick's arsenal × how Miguel Vargas hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Parker Messick throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	33%	93.2	22%	.341
Changeup	23%	84.9	38%	.361
TOPSinker	15%	91.8	9%	.420
Curveball	12%	78.0	16%	.228
Slider	11%	86.5	23%	.301
Cutter	6%	90.5	16%	.412

Miguel Vargas vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1199	19%	.351	92.5
Changeup	244	10%	.326	85.5
TOPSinker	605	9%	.473	94.0
Curveball	155	15%	.239	83.4
Slider	502	26%	.342	86.2
Cutter	276	23%	.321	86.3

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 0.9

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.5

Plate Appearancesavg 4.5

Hitsavg 0.9

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.0

Total Basesavg 1.2

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 0.4

Tonight's lines

2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	84%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=673 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-13

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	137-573	.239	.455	.216	32	1	30	100	21.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	44-162	.272	.556	.284	8	1	12	32	20.4%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	93-411	.226	.416	.190	24	0	18	68	21.4%
Last 15 days recent form	11-49	.224	.286	.061	0	0	1	3	26.5%
vs Parker Messick tonight's starting pitcher	1-11	.091	.364	.273	0	0	1	1	18.2%
vs CLE tonight's opponent (full roster)	18-73	.247	.438	.192	5	0	3	12	27.4%
@ Progressive Field tonight's stadium	580-1975	.294	.664	.370	278	0	151	709	28.6%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.374

wOBA0.353

delta−0.021 due

n=670 PA

Spray chart

883 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing out

Balls in play883

HR rate5.4%

Hard-hit (95+)42%

Avg exit velo89.8 mph

Ground ball30%

Line drive25%

Fly ball35%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-14	5	2	1	1	0	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 BB
2026-09-13	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	1	0	0	3	1-for-5 · 1 R · 3 K
2026-09-11	5	1	0	0	0	1-for-5 · 1 SB
2026-09-10	4	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-09	3	0	0	0	2	0-for-3 · 2 K
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-06	6	2	0	1	1	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-05	4	1	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-04	4	1	1	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Miguel Vargas across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.