Ceddanne Rafaela

CF · RHB · RHP · BOS

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Home vs

CWS

Starter

Luis Castillo (RHP)

Stadium

Fenway Park

Model HR%

13.0%

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Ceddanne Rafaela, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-2	60%	-8.6%
A	9-2	82%	+59.8%
B	4-3	57%	+23.5%

Combined 16-7 · n=23 · ROI +33.9% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 41%

Matchup

Ceddanne Rafaela (RHB) vs Luis Castillo RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Luis Castillo RHP · season · 111.9 IP · 481 BF

BAA

.263

wOBA

.340

SLG

.447

ISO

.184

WHIP

1.39

HR/9

1.45

BB%

8.3%

19.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.1%

HH%

41.6%

FB%

36.6%

HR/FB%

17.5%

Ceddanne Rafaela hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	128-436	.294	.484	.190	16	5.8%	21.8%
vs RHP	94-317	.297	.461	.164	11	5.1%	19.2%

Pitch-type matchup

Luis Castillo's arsenal × how Ceddanne Rafaela hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Luis Castillo throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	45%	94.9	24%	.366
TOPSlider	22%	84.6	33%	.370
Sinker	21%	94.9	10%	.391
Changeup	12%	87.2	23%	.388
Cutter	0%	91.6	50%	—
Pitchout	0%	89.4	—	—

Ceddanne Rafaela vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	887	19%	.401	91.8
TOPSlider	488	28%	.362	89.0
Sinker	541	14%	.318	84.5
Changeup	318	33%	.357	87.5
Cutter	186	27%	.271	87.9
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

90%9/10 · L10 · avg 1.5

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.5

Singlesavg 0.7

Doublesavg 0.3

Total Basesavg 3.3

Home Runsavg 0.5

Strikeoutsavg 1.1

Walksavg 0.1

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	87%	—	—	—	Sign in to save	Sign in

Splits

Career n=463 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-02

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	128-436	.294	.484	.190	27	4	16	27	21.8%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	34-119	.286	.546	.261	8	4	5	10	28.6%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	94-317	.297	.461	.164	19	0	11	17	19.2%
Last 15 days recent form	18-52	.346	.788	.442	2	0	7	0	25.0%
vs Luis Castillo tonight's starting pitcher	1-5	.200	.400	.200	1	0	0	1	40.0%
@ Fenway Park tonight's stadium	4680-15584	.300	.452	.152	1064	0	434	324	17.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.272

wOBA0.322

delta+0.050 hot

n=463 PA

Spray chart

792 balls in play since 2025· wind 4 mph blowing out

Balls in play792

HR rate4.2%

Hard-hit (95+)35%

Avg exit velo86.6 mph

Ground ball43%

Line drive24%

Fly ball26%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	4	0	0	0	1	1	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-08-04	4	1	1	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-08-02	5	2	0	1	0	2	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 2 R · 2 K
2026-08-01	4	2	0	2	0	0	2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-07-31	5	3	0	1	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-30	4	2	1	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 2B · 2 RBI · 1 SB · 1 K
2026-07-29	5	2	1	0	0	3	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 K
2026-07-28	4	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-07-27	4	1	0	1	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 HR · 4 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-26	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Ceddanne Rafaela across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.