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Spencer Torkelson
1B · RHB · RHP · DET
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.0% edgemodel 16% · grade PASS
Why: Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260): +51.5% lift over 98 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (30% usage, .476 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Spencer Torkelson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 25-11 | 69% | +79.0% |
| A | 12-18 | 40% | -12.8% |
| B | 17-11 | 61% | +64.7% |
Combined 54-40 · n=94 · ROI +45.4% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 33%
Matchup
Spencer Torkelson (RHB) vs Davis Martin RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Davis Martin's arsenal × how Spencer Torkelson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.6Plate Appearancesavg 3.6
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.7
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 1.9
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.9
Walksavg 0.8
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=607 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.300
wOBA0.319
delta+0.019 hot
n=606 PA
Spray chart
782 balls in play since 2025Balls in play782
HR rate7.4%
Hard-hit (95+)42%
Avg exit velo89.5 mph
Ground ball30%
Line drive25%
Fly ball36%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+51.5%significant
n=506 games · 23/98 HR when active
+44.5%significant
n=499 games · 64/365 HR when active
+29.4%significant
n=503 games · 21/104 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
3 / 4HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +45% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
- +28% HR rate when opposing starter's recent fb velo down ≥1 mph.
- −22% HR rate when hot streak (l5 avg ev > career baseline).
- +22% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.51× HR rate
98 yes / 408 no · 81 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight
+45%
365 yes / 134 no · 79 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+29%
104 yes / 399 no · 80 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+28%
105 yes / 257 no · 59 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mphtonight
+28%
73 yes / 358 no · 73 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+27%
211 yes / 284 no · 79 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+25%
105 yes / 380 no · 79 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−25%
320 yes / 185 no · 81 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+23%
53 yes / 452 no · 81 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)tonight
−22%
223 yes / 279 no · 80 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+22%
228 yes / 279 no · 81 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
+22%
399 yes / 107 no · 81 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+21%
230 yes / 277 no · 81 HRs
// 15 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+17%
51 yes / 456 no · 81 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−15%
12 yes / 473 no · 79 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+14%
147 yes / 360 no · 81 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−13%
306 yes / 179 no · 79 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−12%
366 yes / 141 no · 81 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+11%
223 yes / 283 no · 81 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+11%
3 yes / 504 no · 81 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
94 yes / 378 no · 79 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
20 yes / 486 no · 81 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
80 yes / 419 no · 79 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
99 yes / 402 no · 80 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
258 yes / 249 no · 81 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 507 no · 81 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 499 no · 79 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Spencer Torkelson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.