Spencer Torkelson

1B · RHB · RHP · DET

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

SEA

Starter

Bryce Miller (RHP)

Stadium

T-Mobile Park

Model HR%

23.4%

Model Hits%

68.5%

Tonight's top play

Hits OVER 0.5+13.4% edgemodel 69% · grade S

Why: Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph: +27.9% lift over 70 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (41% usage, .476 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	OVER 0.5	69%	+13.4%	70%	STRONG
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	23%	+6.8%	10%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Spencer Torkelson, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	11-3	79%	+54.8%
A	6-10	38%	+79.9%
B	9-5	64%	+16.8%

Combined 26-18 · n=44 · ROI +51.8% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 21%

Matchup

Spencer Torkelson (RHB) vs Bryce Miller RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Bryce Miller RHP · season · 66.0 IP · 284 BF

BAA

.204

wOBA

.259

SLG

.370

ISO

.167

WHIP

1.04

HR/9

1.64

BB%

4.9%

26.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.7%

HH%

32.3%

FB%

43.0%

HR/FB%

15.0%

Spencer Torkelson hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	89-413	.215	.424	.208	22	11.2%	33.4%
vs RHP	61-302	.202	.430	.228	19	10.4%	34.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Bryce Miller's arsenal × how Spencer Torkelson hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Bryce Miller throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	41%	95.2	18%	.406
Splitter	19%	84.3	27%	.365
TOPSinker	15%	94.7	6%	.381
Slider	10%	86.6	36%	.368
Knuckle Curve	9%	83.5	28%	.430
Sweeper	5%	83.3	21%	.300
Cutter	1%	90.3	38%	.106
Pitchout	0%	91.7	—	—

Spencer Torkelson vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	956	16%	.476	94.7
Splitter	106	45%	.340	83.1
TOPSinker	732	10%	.421	90.8
Slider	584	35%	.367	89.6
Knuckle Curve	36	22%	.452	91.3
Sweeper	422	34%	.308	82.9
Cutter	329	28%	.305	87.6
Pitchout	no sample

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.3

Our model69% OVER+13.4% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.3

Singlesavg 1.1

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.7

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.6

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	69%	+13.4%	-123	+0.2	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	OVER	S	28%	+9.2%	+400	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	6%	+1.0%	+2000	-0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	A	23%	+6.8%	+500	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	17%	—	+231	+1.6	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	14%	—	+600	+1.8	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	A	45%	—	+165	+0.7	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	10%	—	+1000	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	B	40%	—	+174	+1.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=465 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-04

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	89-413	.215	.424	.208	20	22	52	33.4%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	28-111	.252	.405	.153	8	3	17	29.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	61-302	.202	.430	.228	12	19	35	34.8%
Last 15 days recent form	15-46	.326	.478	.152	1	2	4	21.7%
vs Bryce Miller tonight's starting pitcher	3-9	.333	.333	.000	0	0	0	22.2%
vs SEA tonight's opponent (full roster)	13-65	.200	.262	.062	4	0	5	40.0%
@ T-Mobile Park tonight's stadium	9-45	.200	.200	.000	0	0	0	60.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.308

wOBA0.319

delta+0.011 hot

n=464 PA

// SPRAY PROFILE NOT YET AVAILABLE — needs ≥1 season of batted-ball data

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+27.9%significant

n=402 games · 16/70 HR when active

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+27.7%significant

n=468 games · 21/102 HR when active

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+25.9%significant

n=464 games · 59/336 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04

// TONIGHT

2 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Slight favorable lean

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+37% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
+26% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
−24% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight

+37%

206 yes / 266 no · 78 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

+28%

70 yes / 332 no · 71 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

+28%

102 yes / 366 no · 77 HRs

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

+26%

336 yes / 128 no · 76 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

+25%

218 yes / 254 no · 78 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)

+25%

95 yes / 237 no · 58 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)tonight

−24%

294 yes / 176 no · 78 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

−23%

216 yes / 251 no · 77 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+22%

95 yes / 376 no · 78 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+21%

199 yes / 261 no · 76 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+21%

94 yes / 356 no · 76 HRs

// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

−20%

357 yes / 115 no · 78 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+20%

53 yes / 417 no · 78 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+17%

44 yes / 428 no · 78 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

+17%

372 yes / 99 no · 78 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−16%

12 yes / 438 no · 76 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

−13%

282 yes / 170 no · 77 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

−9%

89 yes / 350 no · 76 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+5%

75 yes / 389 no · 76 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

20 yes / 451 no · 78 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)

neutral

93 yes / 373 no · 77 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 471 no · 78 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

136 yes / 336 no · 78 HRs

Playing at home

neutral

241 yes / 231 no · 78 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

neutral

223 yes / 248 no · 78 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 464 no · 76 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

0 yes / 472 no · 78 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-05	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-08-04	5	1	0	0	0	3	1-for-5 · 3 K
2026-08-02	5	2	1	0	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 RBI
2026-08-01	5	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-07-31	5	3	0	0	1	0	3-for-4 · 3 R · 1 BB
2026-07-29	5	2	0	1	0	0	2-for-5 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 2 R
2026-07-28	5	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-5 · 1 RBI
2026-07-27	4	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-26	4	1	0	0	2	0	1-for-2 · 2 BB
2026-07-25	1	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-1

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Spencer Torkelson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.