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Kerry Carpenter
RF · LHB · RHP · DET
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Kerry Carpenter, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 7-3 | 70% | +51.6% |
| A | 2-3 | 40% | -14.8% |
| B | 2-4 | 33% | -44.0% |
Combined 11-10 · n=21 · ROI +8.5% · avg CLV -3.0 pts · beat close 43%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.1Plate Appearancesavg 3.1
Hitsavg 0.3
Singlesavg 0.3
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 0.3
Home Runsavg 0.0
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.0
Splits
Career n=284 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-07-26
xStats luck
xwOBA0.308
wOBA0.304
delta−0.004 due
n=283 PA
Spray chart
545 balls in play since 2025Balls in play545
HR rate7.5%
Hard-hit (95+)45%
Avg exit velo90.7 mph
Ground ball34%
Line drive23%
Fly ball34%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-45.6%significant
n=315 games · 5/66 HR when active
+65.7%significant
n=371 games · 19/73 HR when active
+53.3%small sample
n=372 games · 3/3 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
1.66× HR rate
73 yes / 298 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.54× HR rate
66 yes / 249 no · 54 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+41%
184 yes / 183 no · 60 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+34%
48 yes / 324 no · 60 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+27%
202 yes / 59 no · 47 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+26%
167 yes / 205 no · 60 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+26%
160 yes / 202 no · 57 HRs
// 21 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
1.53× HR rate
3 yes / 369 no · 60 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
+36%
2 yes / 370 no · 60 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
−20%
272 yes / 93 no · 58 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+19%
230 yes / 142 no · 60 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+16%
7 yes / 343 no · 57 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+14%
273 yes / 98 no · 60 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+12%
224 yes / 148 no · 60 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+11%
126 yes / 246 no · 60 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−10%
69 yes / 281 no · 57 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−9%
16 yes / 355 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+9%
219 yes / 141 no · 57 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+8%
183 yes / 188 no · 60 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+8%
178 yes / 194 no · 60 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+6%
70 yes / 297 no · 59 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
187 yes / 185 no · 60 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
60 yes / 305 no · 58 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
78 yes / 289 no · 59 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
42 yes / 330 no · 60 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
neutral
51 yes / 268 no · 51 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 365 no · 58 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Kerry Carpenter across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.