Andy Pages

CF · RHB · RHP · LAD

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CHC

Starter

Shota Imanaga (LHP)

Stadium

Wrigley Field

Model HR%

27.7%

Model Hits%

68.4%

Tonight's top play

Home Runs OVER 0.5+9.8% edgemodel 28% · grade S

Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (47% usage, .411 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	28%	+9.8%	10%	CAUTION
Hits	UNDER 1.5	74%	+1.9%	70%	LEAN

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Andy Pages, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	5-5	50%	+66.6%
A	2-2	50%	+13.0%
B	3-2	60%	+19.4%

Combined 10-9 · n=19 · ROI +42.9% · avg CLV +0.1 pts · beat close 31%

Matchup

Andy Pages (RHB) vs Shota Imanaga LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Shota Imanaga LHP · season · 128.1 IP · 551 BF

BAA

.225

wOBA

.309

SLG

.412

ISO

.186

WHIP

1.19

HR/9

1.76

BB%

6.5%

24.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

2.5%

HH%

35.3%

FB%

40.3%

HR/FB%

19.2%

Andy Pages hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	122-458	.266	.443	.177	18	9.3%	21.6%
vs LHP	33-125	.264	.464	.200	5	12.6%	20.8%

Pitch-type matchup

Shota Imanaga's arsenal × how Andy Pages hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Shota Imanaga throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPFour-Seam	47%	91.2	14%	.408
TOPSplitter	32%	83.1	35%	.332
Sweeper	16%	80.8	35%	.437
Sinker	3%	89.8	16%	.260
Curveball	2%	72.7	23%	.432
Slider	0%	81.9	50%	.513

Andy Pages vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPFour-Seam	1113	17%	.411	91.1
TOPSplitter	82	29%	.465	89.6
Sweeper	320	27%	.327	86.4
Sinker	700	13%	.359	90.0
Curveball	195	26%	.483	86.2
Slider	601	22%	.326	86.8

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

80%8/10 · L10 · avg 1.2

Our model32% UNDER+1.1% edgePASS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.4

Plate Appearancesavg 4.4

Hitsavg 1.2

Singlesavg 1.0

Doublesavg 0.1

Total Basesavg 1.6

Home Runsavg 0.1

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.2

Tonight's lines

2026-08-05 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	8%	—	+375	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	UNDER	PASS	32%	+1.1%	+228	-1.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
BEST1.5	UNDER	PASS	74%	+1.9%	-260	-2.8	Sign in to save	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	4%	-6.7%	+800	+0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	S	28%	+9.8%	+460	+0.6	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	19%	—	+190	+1.5	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	17%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	41%	—	+103	+1.4	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	S	7%	—	+500	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	A	40%	—	+121	+0.8	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=505 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-08-03

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	122-458	.266	.443	.177	23	2	18	47	21.6%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	33-125	.264	.464	.200	8	1	5	18	20.8%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	89-333	.267	.435	.168	15	1	13	29	21.9%
Last 15 days recent form	15-50	.300	.420	.120	1	1	1	4	22.0%
vs Shota Imanaga tonight's starting pitcher	3-10	.300	.700	.400	1	0	1	0	20.0%
vs CHC tonight's opponent (full roster)	22-75	.293	.547	.253	4	0	5	5	21.3%
@ Wrigley Field tonight's stadium	9-36	.250	.250	.000	0	0	0	0	0.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.310

wOBA0.317

delta+0.007 hot

n=504 PA

Spray chart

857 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play857

HR rate5.1%

Hard-hit (95+)40%

Avg exit velo88.6 mph

Ground ball37%

Line drive26%

Fly ball29%

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-08-04	4	0	0	0	0	0	0-for-4
2026-08-03	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 R
2026-08-02	5	2	1	0	0	2	2-for-5 · 1 2B · 3 RBI · 2 K
2026-08-01	4	1	0	0	0	1	1-for-4 · 1 K
2026-07-31	5	1	0	0	1	1	1-for-4 · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-07-30	4	2	0	0	0	0	2-for-4 · 1 R
2026-07-29	4	3	0	1	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-07-28	5	1	0	0	0	2	1-for-5 · 2 K
2026-07-26	5	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-4 · 1 R · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-07-25	4	1	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Andy Pages across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.