← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +6.7% edge model 69% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Sinker (30% usage, .366 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 69% +6.7% 80% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 15% +3.7% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Heriberto Hernández, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 1-2 33% -46.3% A 1-0 100% +69.9% B 0-2 0% -100.0%
Combined 2-4 · n=6 · ROI -44.8% · avg CLV +0.0 pts · beat close 0%
Matchup Heriberto Hernández (RHB) vs Kumar Rocker RHP favors batter favors pitcher Kumar Rocker RHP · season · 74.2 IP · 319 BF
Heriberto Hernández hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 37-154 .240 .403 .162 7 10.5% 27.9% vs RHP 22-91 .242 .363 .121 3 11.7% 30.8%
Pitch-type matchup Kumar Rocker's arsenal × how Heriberto Hernández hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Kumar Rocker throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Sinker30% 95.1 8% .371 TOP Slider24% 83.9 38% .363 Cutter 17% 90.2 31% .433 TOP Four-Seam16% 95.7 15% .415 Changeup 6% 89.3 24% .502 Curveball 6% 77.8 52% .647 Pitchout 0% 90.8 — —
Heriberto Hernández vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Sinker273 22% .366 90.6 TOP Slider231 39% .420 87.1 Cutter 130 35% .288 83.6 TOP Four-Seam438 25% .414 93.7 Changeup 182 44% .575 93.0 Curveball 78 34% .416 87.9 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits80% Total Bases50% Home Runs20% Singles50% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts80% Walks20% RBIs40% Runs Scored40% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases0%
80% 8/10 · L10 · avg 1.0
Our model 69% OVER +6.7% edge A
1 vTBR 06-07 2 vARI 06-10 0 vARI 06-11 2 @PIT 06-12 1 @PIT 06-13 1 @PIT 06-14 1 @PHI 06-15 0 @PHI 06-16 1 vSFG 06-19 1 vSFG 06-20
L5 80% 4/5 L10 80% 8/10 L20 80% 16/20 2026 53% 34/64 2025 55% 48/87
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.8 Plate Appearances avg 3.8
4 4 1 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 1.8
1 2 0 3 1 4 1 0 2 4 Home Runs avg 0.2
0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Strikeouts avg 1.2
2 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 1
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — A 7% — +450 +0.8 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER A 69% +6.7% -164 +6.2 Sign in 1.5 OVER PASS 27% +2.8% +320 +2.1 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -2.8% +1200 +2.9 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER B 15% +3.7% +815 +1.3 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 9% — +240 -2.1 — 1.5 — PASS 7% — +700 -1.8 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — B 52% — +110 +2.2 — 1.5 — PASS 14% — +600 +3.2 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — PASS 40% — +150 +3.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -164 +320 +1200 +815
Price legs
Splits Career n=172 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
37-154 .240 .403 .162 2 1 7 18 27.9% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
15-63 .238 .460 .222 0 1 4 6 23.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
22-91 .242 .363 .121 2 0 3 12 30.8% Last 15 days
recent form
10-36 .278 .500 .222 2 0 2 2 33.3% vs TEX
tonight's opponent (full roster)
2-10 .200 .200 .000 0 0 0 2 10.0% @ loanDepot park
tonight's stadium
810-2294 .353 .644 .291 62 0 202 150 32.2%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.331
wOBA 0.327
delta −0.004 due
n=171 PA
Spray chart 295 balls in play since 2025 · wind 9 mph cross-wind All vLHP vRHP
Match Kumar Rocker's mix Balls in play 295
HR rate 5.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 50%
Avg exit velo 91.7 mph
Ground ball 42%
Line drive 23%
Fly ball 29%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-20 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-19 4 1 1 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 K 2026-06-16 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-15 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K 2026-06-14 4 1 0 0 1 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K 2026-06-13 4 1 0 0 0 0 1 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 K 2026-06-12 5 2 1 0 0 1 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-1 2026-06-10 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-4 · 2 R 2026-06-07 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Heriberto Hernández across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
