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Francisco Alvarez
C · RHB · RHP · NYM
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5+11.7% edgemodel 65% · grade S
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +38.0% lift over 111 games · strong vs the Changeup (37% usage, .552 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Francisco Alvarez, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 21-27 | 44% | -17.3% |
| A | 4-25 | 14% | -29.2% |
| B | 1-22 | 4% | -80.4% |
Combined 26-74 · n=100 · ROI -35.3% · avg CLV -0.5 pts · beat close 43%
Matchup
Francisco Alvarez (RHB) vs Cristopher Sánchez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Cristopher Sánchez's arsenal × how Francisco Alvarez hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.8
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.7
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=409 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.315
wOBA0.311
delta−0.004 due
n=406 PA
Spray chart
410 balls in play since 2025Balls in play410
HR rate6.3%
Hard-hit (95+)49%
Avg exit velo90.6 mph
Ground ball48%
Line drive21%
Fly ball25%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+38.0%significant
n=225 games · 22/111 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
0 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning against
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- −27% HR rate when no rest day (b2b or doubleheader).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+38%
111 yes / 114 no · 37 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)tonight
−27%
126 yes / 99 no · 37 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+23%
32 yes / 193 no · 37 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
−22%
134 yes / 92 no · 37 HRs
// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Playing at home
−18%
118 yes / 108 no · 37 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
−12%
37 yes / 189 no · 37 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
neutral
58 yes / 168 no · 37 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
97 yes / 129 no · 37 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Francisco Alvarez across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.