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Elly De La Cruz
SS · SHB · RHP · CIN
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Elly De La Cruz, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 10-2 | 83% | +56.3% |
| A | 5-6 | 45% | +86.4% |
| B | 11-4 | 73% | +77.8% |
Combined 26-12 · n=38 · ROI +73.5% · avg CLV -1.7 pts · beat close 16%
Matchup
Elly De La Cruz (SHB) vs JR Ritchie RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
JR Ritchie's arsenal × how Elly De La Cruz hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 1.1
Singlesavg 0.6
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.3
Walksavg 0.7
Splits
Career n=634 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-20
xStats luck
xwOBA0.357
wOBA0.374
delta+0.017 hot
n=632 PA
Spray chart
845 balls in play since 2025· wind 3 mph blowing outBalls in play845
HR rate5.9%
Hard-hit (95+)50%
Avg exit velo92.9 mph
Ground ball49%
Line drive24%
Fly ball23%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-23.7%significant
n=302 games · 16/155 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-22
// TONIGHT
1 / 1HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +21% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
1.66× HR rate
178 yes / 253 no · 63 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+49%
46 yes / 391 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
+44%
89 yes / 332 no · 61 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+30%
90 yes / 346 no · 64 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+28%
236 yes / 182 no · 60 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−27%
270 yes / 167 no · 64 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
+27%
232 yes / 200 no · 63 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
+26%
332 yes / 103 no · 64 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−26%
61 yes / 309 no · 54 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)tonight
+21%
123 yes / 314 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
−20%
205 yes / 231 no · 64 HRs
// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−20%
7 yes / 430 no · 64 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−17%
275 yes / 162 no · 64 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
−16%
212 yes / 225 no · 64 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+13%
110 yes / 326 no · 64 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−9%
343 yes / 93 no · 64 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
2 yes / 418 no · 62 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
neutral
131 yes / 289 no · 62 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
neutral
43 yes / 392 no · 64 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
263 yes / 172 no · 64 HRs
Playing at home
neutral
220 yes / 217 no · 64 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
neutral
14 yes / 422 no · 64 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
55 yes / 380 no · 64 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
115 yes / 321 no · 64 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 437 no · 64 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 435 no · 64 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Elly De La Cruz across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.