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Riley Greene
LF · LHB · LHP · DET
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Riley Greene, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-1 | 50% | -19.5% |
| A | 1-1 | 50% | -20.9% |
| B | 1-4 | 20% | +32.8% |
Combined 3-6 · n=9 · ROI +9.2% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 33%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3Plate Appearancesavg 4.3
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.2
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.5
Splits
Career n=334 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.326
wOBA0.343
delta+0.017 hot
n=333 PA
Spray chart
640 balls in play since 2025Balls in play640
HR rate7.3%
Hard-hit (95+)51%
Avg exit velo90.9 mph
Ground ball40%
Line drive23%
Fly ball32%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+108.3%significant
n=368 games · 46/245 HR when active
+68.8%significant
n=368 games · 13/48 HR when active
+68.5%significant
n=376 games · 36/186 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-06-16
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
2.08× HR rate
245 yes / 123 no · 55 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
1.69× HR rate
48 yes / 320 no · 55 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
1.69× HR rate
186 yes / 190 no · 56 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
1.68× HR rate
196 yes / 73 no · 40 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
1.54× HR rate
135 yes / 241 no · 56 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
1.50× HR rate
61 yes / 292 no · 53 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
+36%
148 yes / 219 no · 55 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
+25%
69 yes / 307 no · 56 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
+23%
29 yes / 347 no · 56 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−22%
16 yes / 359 no · 56 HRs
// 18 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
+18%
68 yes / 302 no · 55 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
+17%
275 yes / 101 no · 56 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
−16%
207 yes / 169 no · 56 HRs
Playing at home
−12%
188 yes / 188 no · 56 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−10%
111 yes / 265 no · 56 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
−10%
229 yes / 133 no · 53 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−7%
9 yes / 344 no · 53 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−5%
58 yes / 268 no · 48 HRs
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+5%
5 yes / 371 no · 56 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
neutral
63 yes / 285 no · 53 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
neutral
292 yes / 83 no · 56 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
35 yes / 338 no · 56 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
76 yes / 297 no · 55 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
neutral
188 yes / 183 no · 55 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
233 yes / 140 no · 56 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 368 no · 55 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 376 no · 56 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Riley Greene across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.