Riley Greene

LF · LHB · LHP · DET

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

CWS

Starter

David Sandlin (RHP)

Stadium

Rate Field

Model HR%

12.2%

Model Hits%

55.9%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+10.8% edgemodel 44% · grade S

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	44%	+10.8%	30%	CAUTION
Home Runs	UNDER 0.5	88%	+6.5%	70%	STRONG

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Riley Greene, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	1-2	33%	-50.0%
A	1-2	33%	-47.6%
B	3-6	33%	+5.3%

Combined 5-10 · n=15 · ROI -16.3% · avg CLV +0.7 pts · beat close 50%

Matchup

Riley Greene (LHB) vs David Sandlin RHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

David Sandlin RHP · season · 29.3 IP · 126 BF

BAA

.212

wOBA

.299

SLG

.398

ISO

.186

WHIP

1.26

HR/9

1.84

BB%

10.3%

23.0%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

1.2%

HH%

33.3%

FB%

28.6%

HR/FB%

25.0%

Riley Greene hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	143-508	.281	.476	.195	21	12.0%	30.1%
vs RHP	105-359	.292	.493	.201	16	10.9%	29.8%

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.8

Our model44% UNDER+10.8% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.3

Plate Appearancesavg 4.3

Hitsavg 1.8

Singlesavg 0.9

Doublesavg 0.4

Total Basesavg 3.6

Home Runsavg 0.4

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.3

Tonight's lines

2026-09-18 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	PASS	7%	—	+425	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	S	44%	+10.8%	+200	-0.3	Sign in to save	Sign in
1.5	UNDER	A	84%	+5.3%	-375	-1.1	Sign in to save	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	A	88%	+6.5%	-435	+0.0	Sign in to save	Sign in

RBIs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	8%	—	+167	+0.1	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	PASS	6%	—	+475	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
0.5	—	S	36%	—	+120	+0.0	Sign in to save	—
1.5	—	A	6%	—	+700	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Save	Track
1.5	—	S	28%	—	+141	+0.0	Sign in to save	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=577 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-16

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	143-508	.281	.476	.195	32	2	21	69	30.1%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	38-149	.255	.436	.181	8	2	5	25	30.9%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	105-359	.292	.493	.201	24	0	16	44	29.8%
Last 15 days recent form	20-47	.426	.809	.383	4	1	4	4	19.1%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.352

wOBA0.356

delta+0.004 hot

n=576 PA

Spray chart

795 balls in play since 2025

Balls in play795

HR rate7.4%

Hard-hit (95+)49%

Avg exit velo90.3 mph

Ground ball38%

Line drive24%

Fly ball33%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)

+80.1%significant

n=427 games · 56/317 HR when active

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

+70.1%significant

n=434 games · 40/198 HR when active

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

+51.5%significant

n=427 games · 14/58 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15

// TONIGHT

3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY

Leaning favorable

// IN PLAY TONIGHT

+80% HR rate when vs pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%).
+79% HR rate when platoon advantage (lhb-vs-rhp or rhb-vs-lhp).
+37% HR rate when vs hr-prone pitcher (hr/pa > 3.8%).

helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight

Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)tonight

1.80× HR rate

317 yes / 110 no · 65 HRs

Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)tonight

1.79× HR rate

232 yes / 87 no · 49 HRs

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

1.70× HR rate

198 yes / 236 no · 66 HRs

Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)

1.51× HR rate

58 yes / 369 no · 65 HRs

First-pitch temperature > 78°F

+50%

85 yes / 325 no · 63 HRs

≥1 career HR vs this pitcher

+45%

35 yes / 399 no · 66 HRs

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

+40%

182 yes / 252 no · 66 HRs

Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)tonight

+37%

77 yes / 352 no · 65 HRs

Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)

+36%

172 yes / 253 no · 65 HRs

3rd time through order vs starter

−22%

234 yes / 200 no · 66 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+21%

40 yes / 390 no · 66 HRs

// 17 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Playing at home

−20%

218 yes / 216 no · 66 HRs

Batting 3-4-5 in the order

+20%

332 yes / 102 no · 66 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+14%

261 yes / 156 no · 62 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

−13%

19 yes / 414 no · 66 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+11%

83 yes / 351 no · 66 HRs

Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)

−9%

10 yes / 400 no · 63 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

−8%

271 yes / 159 no · 66 HRs

Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest

+8%

77 yes / 328 no · 63 HRs

Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)

+6%

211 yes / 218 no · 65 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

89 yes / 342 no · 65 HRs

≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

1 yes / 433 no · 66 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

neutral

122 yes / 312 no · 66 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

neutral

337 yes / 96 no · 66 HRs

Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph

neutral

62 yes / 314 no · 56 HRs

≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher

neutral

6 yes / 428 no · 66 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)

neutral

0 yes / 427 no · 65 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-09-17	4	1	0	0	0	0	2	1-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-16	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	1-for-4 · 1 RBI
2026-09-15	4	1	0	0	0	1	1	1-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-09-14	5	2	0	0	0	0	1	2-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-13	4	2	0	0	1	0	1	2-for-4 · 1 HR · 3 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-09-12	5	2	0	0	0	0	2	2-for-5 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 K
2026-09-11	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 3B · 2 RBI · 1 R
2026-09-09	4	0	0	0	0	2	0	0-for-2 · 1 RBI · 2 BB
2026-09-08	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-09-07	4	3	0	0	1	0	0	3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2 RBI · 1 R

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Riley Greene across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.