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Corbin Carroll
RF · LHB · LHP · ARI
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+4.8% edgemodel 20% · grade B
Why: NOT Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest: -44.8% lift over 385 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (42% usage, .525 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Corbin Carroll, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 11-0 | 100% | +93.5% |
| A | 5-7 | 42% | +21.0% |
| B | 0-7 | 0% | -100.0% |
Combined 16-14 · n=30 · ROI +19.3% · avg CLV -0.8 pts · beat close 29%
Matchup
Corbin Carroll (LHB) vs Will Warren RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Will Warren's arsenal × how Corbin Carroll hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.0Plate Appearancesavg 4.0
Hitsavg 0.9
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.2
Total Basesavg 2.0
Home Runsavg 0.3
Strikeoutsavg 1.4
Walksavg 0.2
Tonight's lines
2026-09-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=654 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-18
xStats luck
xwOBA0.338
wOBA0.342
delta+0.004 hot
n=653 PA
Spray chart
853 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph blowing outBalls in play853
HR rate6.2%
Hard-hit (95+)51%
Avg exit velo92.5 mph
Ground ball38%
Line drive22%
Fly ball31%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-44.8%significant
n=457 games · 5/72 HR when active
+49.5%significant
n=487 games · 41/215 HR when active
+37.9%small sample
n=487 games · 3/7 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-09-15
// TONIGHT
3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +50% HR rate when vs high-contact-quality pitcher (avg ev allowed ≥ 89 mph).
- +31% HR rate when ≥1 career hr vs this pitcher.
- +22% HR rate when vs fastball-heavy pitcher (fb% ≥ 55%).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
3rd time through order vs starter
1.94× HR rate
339 yes / 148 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)tonight
+50%
215 yes / 272 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
0.55× HR rate
72 yes / 385 no · 72 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
+45%
20 yes / 466 no · 74 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
+38%
223 yes / 257 no · 72 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitchertonight
+31%
41 yes / 446 no · 74 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
+27%
112 yes / 375 no · 74 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+24%
221 yes / 266 no · 74 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)tonight
+22%
248 yes / 222 no · 72 HRs
// 19 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
+38%
7 yes / 480 no · 74 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
−18%
6 yes / 474 no · 72 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
−18%
104 yes / 383 no · 74 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−15%
379 yes / 107 no · 74 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−15%
266 yes / 216 no · 73 HRs
Playing at home
+12%
254 yes / 233 no · 74 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
+11%
46 yes / 438 no · 73 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
+8%
244 yes / 90 no · 48 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
−7%
65 yes / 421 no · 74 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−6%
146 yes / 341 no · 74 HRs
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
−6%
70 yes / 350 no · 71 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
189 yes / 292 no · 74 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
363 yes / 123 no · 74 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
64 yes / 420 no · 73 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
neutral
173 yes / 314 no · 74 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
106 yes / 381 no · 74 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 486 no · 74 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 487 no · 74 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Corbin Carroll across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.