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Gunnar Henderson
SS · LHB · RHP · BAL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Hits UNDER 0.5+0.1% edgemodel 30% · grade PASS
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Gunnar Henderson, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-2 | 33% | -52.4% |
| A | 5-5 | 50% | -5.0% |
| B | 8-10 | 44% | -13.3% |
Combined 14-17 · n=31 · ROI -14.4% · avg CLV -1.3 pts · beat close 17%
Matchup
Gunnar Henderson (LHB) vs Ryan Johnson RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherHit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA4.2Plate Appearancesavg 4.2
Hitsavg 0.6
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.0
Total Basesavg 1.1
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 1.1
Walksavg 0.5
Tonight's lines
2026-08-06 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Same-game parlay
pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won'tSplits
Career n=526 PA · 2026-03-19 → 2026-08-04
xStats luck
xwOBA0.305
wOBA0.305
deltaneutral
n=525 PA
Spray chart
798 balls in play since 2025· wind 5 mph cross-windBalls in play798
HR rate4.5%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo90.7 mph
Ground ball47%
Line drive24%
Fly ball22%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
-42.0%significant
n=383 games · 5/71 HR when active
-33.3%significant
n=422 games · 5/60 HR when active
-24.5%small sample
n=444 games · 0/9 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-08-04
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Opposing starter's recent FB velo down ≥1 mph
0.58× HR rate
71 yes / 312 no · 55 HRs
Opposing starter coming off >7 days rest
−33%
60 yes / 362 no · 62 HRs
First-pitch temperature > 78°F
−27%
93 yes / 342 no · 66 HRs
3rd time through order vs starter
+21%
281 yes / 163 no · 66 HRs
Batting 3-4-5 in the order
−20%
189 yes / 255 no · 66 HRs
// 23 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
≥2 career HRs vs this pitcher
−25%
9 yes / 435 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fly-ball-prone pitcher (FB% allowed > 40%)
+19%
66 yes / 374 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
−18%
83 yes / 358 no · 66 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
+17%
237 yes / 190 no · 60 HRs
Hot streak (L5 avg EV > career baseline)
−17%
184 yes / 255 no · 65 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
+15%
126 yes / 318 no · 66 HRs
Playing at home
+14%
233 yes / 211 no · 66 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+13%
206 yes / 236 no · 66 HRs
Rested (2+ days off)
−13%
19 yes / 424 no · 66 HRs
Wind blowing out (≥10 mph, outdoor)
+12%
9 yes / 426 no · 66 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
−9%
351 yes / 92 no · 66 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
−8%
81 yes / 361 no · 66 HRs
Vs. pull-fly-ball-prone pitcher (>18%)
neutral
304 yes / 136 no · 66 HRs
Vs. short-leash starter (avg IP < 5.0)
neutral
171 yes / 264 no · 65 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
neutral
56 yes / 388 no · 66 HRs
≥1 career HR vs this pitcher
neutral
65 yes / 379 no · 66 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
neutral
42 yes / 402 no · 66 HRs
Vs. HR-prone pitcher (HR/PA > 3.8%)
neutral
68 yes / 372 no · 66 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
neutral
204 yes / 240 no · 66 HRs
Platoon advantage (LHB-vs-RHP or RHB-vs-LHP)
neutral
222 yes / 89 no · 42 HRs
Vs. barrel-prone pitcher (Barrel% allowed > 9%)
neutral
0 yes / 440 no · 66 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
≥3 career HRs vs this pitcher
neutral
0 yes / 444 no · 66 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Gunnar Henderson across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.