Anthony Volpe

SS · RHB · RHP · NYY

// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP

Away @

DET

Starter

Framber Valdez (LHP)

Stadium

Comerica Park

Model HR%

9.6%

Model Hits%

55.0%

Tonight's top play

Hits UNDER 0.5+10.5% edgemodel 48% · grade S

Why: struggles vs the Changeup (18% usage, .258 xwOBA).

Verdict

one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?

Prop	Pick	Model	Edge	L10	Verdict
Hits	UNDER 0.5	48%	+10.5%	30%	CAUTION
Home Runs	OVER 0.5	16%	+3.2%	0%	CAUTION

Our track record

settled S/A/B picks on Anthony Volpe, by confidence tier

Tier	Record	Hit rate	ROI
S	3-6	33%	+16.6%
A	2-1	67%	+28.0%
B	0-2	0%	-100.0%

Combined 5-9 · n=14 · ROI +2.4% · avg CLV -1.5 pts · beat close 22%

Matchup

Anthony Volpe (RHB) vs Framber Valdez LHPfavors batterfavors pitcher

Framber Valdez LHP · season · 95.3 IP · 410 BF

BAA

.250

wOBA

.324

SLG

.378

ISO

.128

WHIP

1.41

HR/9

0.85

BB%

10.2%

18.1%

Whiff%

—

Barrel%

0.9%

HH%

40.6%

FB%

30.9%

HR/FB%

13.4%

Anthony Volpe hitting

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	HR	BB%	K%
Season	23-86	.267	.384	.116	1	14.9%	23.3%
vs LHP	9-31	.290	.484	.194	1	11.4%	9.7%

Pitch-type matchup

Framber Valdez's arsenal × how Anthony Volpe hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot

Framber Valdez throws

Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff	xwOBA
TOPSinker	46%	94.1	11%	.365
Curveball	32%	79.2	39%	.347
Changeup	18%	89.5	26%	.330
Slider	3%	84.7	35%	.344
Four-Seam	0%	95.3	0%	1.788

Anthony Volpe vs each

Pitch	Seen	Whiff	xwOBA	EV
TOPSinker	471	16%	.428	88.3
Curveball	147	26%	.332	90.6
Changeup	229	20%	.258	86.4
Slider	446	24%	.328	86.9
Four-Seam	858	27%	.391	93.0

xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.

Hit-rate history

per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under

OVER

0.5

Hits

70%7/10 · L10 · avg 1.1

Our model48% UNDER+10.5% edgeS

Recent form

per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.8

Plate Appearancesavg 3.8

Hitsavg 1.1

Singlesavg 0.8

Doublesavg 0.2

Total Basesavg 1.5

Home Runsavg 0.0

Strikeoutsavg 0.8

Walksavg 0.6

Tonight's lines

2026-06-20 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)

Doubles + Triples

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	7%	—	+450	+0.0	—

Hits

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	UNDER	S	48%	+10.5%	+168	-0.6	Sign in
1.5	OVER	PASS	21%	-2.1%	+340	-2.3	Sign in
2.5	OVER	PASS	3%	-3.8%	+1300	+0.0	Sign in

Home Runs

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
BEST0.5	OVER	B	16%	+3.2%	+679	+0.5	Sign in

Singles

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	B	34%	—	+130	+0.0	—

Strikeouts

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
0.5	—	PASS	51%	—	-137	+0.0	—

Total Bases

Line	Side	Grade	Model	Edge	Odds	Move	Track
1.5	—	B	35%	—	+162	+2.2	—

Same-game parlay

pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't

Splits

Career n=101 PA · 2026-05-13 → 2026-06-20

Season Career

Split	H-AB	BA	SLG	ISO	2B	3B	HR	BB	K%
Season 2026 season	23-86	.267	.384	.116	5	1	1	15	23.3%
vs LHP left-handed pitching	9-31	.290	.484	.194	1	1	1	4	9.7%
vs RHP right-handed pitching	14-55	.255	.327	.073	4	0	0	11	30.9%
Last 15 days recent form	11-32	.344	.469	.125	2	1	0	6	18.8%
vs Framber Valdez tonight's starting pitcher	1-7	.143	.143	.000	0	0	0	1	28.6%
vs DET tonight's opponent (full roster)	5-60	.083	.100	.017	1	0	0	4	35.0%

xStats luck

xwOBA0.294

wOBA0.272

delta−0.022 due

n=101 PA

Spray chart

492 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph cross-wind

Balls in play492

HR rate4.7%

Hard-hit (95+)38%

Avg exit velo87.3 mph

Ground ball41%

Line drive23%

Fly ball29%

What kind of arm does he crush?

top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

-18.9%small sample

n=335 games · 17/156 HR when active

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

+0.0%small sample

n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active

// PLAYER DNA

HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21

// TONIGHT

3 / 4FAVORABLE

Mostly favorable

// TREND TRIGGERS · TONIGHT

+54% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
+53% HR rate when hr-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95).
-46% HR rate when cold month (apr / sep / oct).

Summer game (Jun-Aug)

1.54× HR rate

150 yes / 187 no · 42 HRs

HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)

1.53× HR rate

43 yes / 292 no · 42 HRs

Playing at home

+48%

170 yes / 167 no · 42 HRs

Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)

0.54× HR rate

105 yes / 232 no · 42 HRs

// 8 more factors — small sample / no significant lift

Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)

−19%

156 yes / 179 no · 42 HRs

No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)

−14%

260 yes / 76 no · 42 HRs

HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)

+9%

199 yes / 136 no · 42 HRs

Rested (2+ days off)

neutral

9 yes / 327 no · 42 HRs

Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)

neutral

0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs

// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.

Last 10 games

Per-game outcomes — most recent first.

Date	PA	H	2B	3B	BB	K	Outcomes
2026-06-21	4	0	0	0	1	2	0-for-3 · 1 BB · 2 K
2026-06-20	4	1	0	0	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 SB · 1 BB
2026-06-19	4	2	0	0	1	1	2-for-3 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB · 1 K
2026-06-18	2	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-1 · 1 2B · 1 BB
2026-06-17	4	1	0	1	1	0	1-for-3 · 1 3B · 1 RBI · 2 R · 1 BB
2026-06-16	5	3	0	0	0	1	3-for-5 · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-14	4	2	0	0	0	1	2-for-4 · 2 RBI · 1 R · 1 K
2026-06-10	5	1	1	0	1	0	1-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 BB
2026-06-09	4	0	0	0	0	2	0-for-4 · 2 K
2026-06-08	2	0	0	0	0	1	0-for-2 · 1 K

Nearest neighbors

Top 10 hitters most similar to Anthony Volpe across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.

Comp data temporarily unavailable.