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Andrew Vaughn
1B · RHB · RHP · MIL
// TONIGHT'S MATCHUP
Tonight's top play
Home Runs OVER 0.5+3.4% edgemodel 13% · grade B
Why: Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph): +46.2% lift over 147 games · strong vs the Four-Seam (53% usage, .430 xwOBA).
Verdict
one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality?Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Andrew Vaughn, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 3-3 | 50% | +13.8% |
| A | 2-3 | 40% | -39.8% |
| B | 1-0 | 100% | +25.0% |
Combined 6-6 · n=12 · ROI -7.6% · avg CLV -0.1 pts · beat close 50%
Matchup
Andrew Vaughn (RHB) vs Bubba Chandler RHPfavors batterfavors pitcherPitch-type matchup
Bubba Chandler's arsenal × how Andrew Vaughn hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spotxwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.5Plate Appearancesavg 3.5
Hitsavg 0.7
Singlesavg 0.4
Doublesavg 0.1
Total Basesavg 1.4
Home Runsavg 0.2
Strikeoutsavg 0.5
Walksavg 0.4
Tonight's lines
2026-08-03 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled)Splits
Career n=229 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-08-01
xStats luck
xwOBA0.338
wOBA0.351
delta+0.013 hot
n=229 PA
Spray chart
541 balls in play since 2025· wind 7 mph blowing inBalls in play541
HR rate3.9%
Hard-hit (95+)46%
Avg exit velo90.7 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive26%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+46.2%significant
n=311 games · 24/147 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
// TONIGHT
3 / 3HELPING · IN PLAY
Leaning favorable
// IN PLAY TONIGHT
- +53% HR rate when playing at home.
- +43% HR rate when summer game (jun-aug).
- +28% HR rate when hr-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10).
helping tonighthurting tonightnot in play tonight
Playing at hometonight
1.53× HR rate
159 yes / 153 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+46%
147 yes / 164 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)tonight
+43%
112 yes / 200 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.61× HR rate
39 yes / 273 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)tonight
+28%
79 yes / 233 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−25%
107 yes / 205 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
+14%
17 yes / 294 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+11%
227 yes / 84 no · 41 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly. Green/red = the factor's effect on tonight's HR chance; gray = not in play tonight.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Andrew Vaughn across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.