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Andrew Vaughn
1B · RHB · RHP · MIL
Our track record
settled S/A/B picks on Andrew Vaughn, by confidence tier| Tier | Record | Hit rate | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | 1-1 | 50% | +34.0% |
| A | 0-2 | 0% | -100.0% |
| B | 1-2 | 33% | +2.3% |
Combined 2-5 · n=7 · ROI -17.9% · avg CLV -0.3 pts · beat close 0%
Hit-rate history
per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = underRecent form
per-game over the last 10Avg PA3.2Plate Appearancesavg 3.2
Hitsavg 1.0
Singlesavg 0.5
Doublesavg 0.3
Total Basesavg 1.8
Home Runsavg 0.1
Strikeoutsavg 0.2
Walksavg 0.8
Splits
Career n=134 PA · 2026-03-16 → 2026-06-17
xStats luck
xwOBA0.349
wOBA0.376
delta+0.027 hot
n=134 PA
Spray chart
473 balls in play since 2025Balls in play473
HR rate4.0%
Hard-hit (95+)47%
Avg exit velo90.3 mph
Ground ball42%
Line drive25%
Fly ball27%
What kind of arm does he crush?
top 3 pitcher traits by |lift|
+46.2%significant
n=311 games · 24/147 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
+0.0%small sample
n=0 games · 0/0 HR when active
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature· refreshed 2026-05-21
Playing at home
1.53× HR rate
159 yes / 153 no · 41 HRs
Vs. high-contact-quality pitcher (avg EV allowed ≥ 89 mph)
+46%
147 yes / 164 no · 41 HRs
Summer game (Jun-Aug)
+43%
112 yes / 200 no · 41 HRs
HR-suppressing park (factor ≤ 0.95)
0.61× HR rate
39 yes / 273 no · 41 HRs
HR-friendly park (factor ≥ 1.10)
+28%
79 yes / 233 no · 41 HRs
Cold month (Apr / Sep / Oct)
−25%
107 yes / 205 no · 41 HRs
// 6 more factors — small sample / no significant lift
Rested (2+ days off)
+14%
17 yes / 294 no · 41 HRs
No rest day (B2B or doubleheader)
+11%
227 yes / 84 no · 41 HRs
Vs. low-whiff pitcher (whiff% < 22%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. hittable pitcher (BAA > .260)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. fastball-heavy pitcher (FB% ≥ 55%)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
Vs. high-xwOBA pitcher (xwOBA allowed > .340)
neutral
0 yes / 0 no · 0 HRs
// LIFT = P(HR | factor true) ÷ P(HR | factor false), Bayesian- shrunk with K=30 pseudo-games. Significance requires |lift − 1| ≥ 0.20 AND smaller cohort n ≥ 15. Cohort = top 60 HR hitters, last 2 seasons. Refreshed weekly.
Last 10 games
Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Nearest neighbors
Top 10 hitters most similar to Andrew Vaughn across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.