← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +7.2% edge model 65% · grade A
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (30% usage, .425 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 65% +7.2% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 9% +1.8% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Christian Koss, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 7-2 78% +41.9% A 4-1 80% +244.4% B 3-3 50% -2.6%
Combined 14-6 · n=20 · ROI +79.2% · avg CLV +1.3 pts · beat close 21%
Matchup Christian Koss (RHB) vs Matthew Liberatore LHP favors batter favors pitcher Matthew Liberatore LHP · season · 150.5 IP · 647 BF
Christian Koss hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 42-185 .227 .335 .108 5 6.1% 25.4% vs LHP 12-52 .231 .481 .250 4 3.7% 25.0%
Pitch-type matchup Matthew Liberatore's arsenal × how Christian Koss hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Matthew Liberatore throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam30% 94.1 11% .422 Slider 22% 86.4 32% .432 Curveball 15% 77.9 32% .339 Changeup 13% 88.5 19% .359 Sinker 12% 94.1 6% .428 Cutter 9% 90.3 15% .354 Splitter 0% 87.5 0% .482 Pitchout 0% 86.6 — —
Christian Koss vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam246 23% .425 86.9 Slider 126 31% .312 83.5 Curveball 41 30% .273 86.6 Changeup 57 36% .297 77.0 Sinker 146 15% .293 79.9 Cutter 63 27% .411 84.1 Splitter 7 17% .181 67.5 Pitchout no sample
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases50% Home Runs20% Singles60% Doubles0% Triples0% Strikeouts30% Walks20% RBIs40% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs80% Stolen Bases20%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.3
Our model 65% OVER +7.2% edge A
2 @NYM 09-05 0 @NYM 09-06 1 vSTL 09-07 2 vSTL 09-08 2 vSTL 09-09 0 vSDP 09-11 1 vSDP 09-12 2 vSDP 09-13 0 @STL 09-14 3 @STL 09-15
L5 60% 3/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 60% 12/20 2026 54% 43/79 2025 57% 39/68
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 3.6 Plate Appearances avg 3.6
4 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 Total Bases avg 2.2
8 0 1 5 2 0 1 2 0 3 Home Runs avg 0.3
2 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Strikeouts avg 0.4
0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0
Tonight's lines 2026-09-16 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Save Track 1.5 — PASS 31% — +240 -2.8 Sign in to save —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't Hits OVER 0.5-139 Hits OVER 1.5+380 Home Runs OVER 0.5+1208
Price legs
Splits Career n=197 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-09-14
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
42-185 .227 .335 .108 5 0 5 12 25.4% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
12-52 .231 .481 .250 1 0 4 2 25.0% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
30-133 .226 .278 .053 4 0 1 10 25.6% Last 15 days
recent form
14-43 .326 .535 .209 0 0 3 4 14.0% vs STL
tonight's opponent (full roster)
6-17 .353 .529 .176 0 0 1 2 17.6% @ Busch Stadium
tonight's stadium
0-500 .000 .000 .000 0 0 0 0 50.0%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.234
wOBA 0.277
delta +0.043 hot
n=197 PA
Spray chart 285 balls in play since 2025 1B 2B 3B HR OUTAll vLHP vRHP
Match Matthew Liberatore's mix Balls in play 285
HR rate 2.8%
Hard-hit (95+) 35%
Avg exit velo 84.1 mph
Ground ball 52%
Line drive 22%
Fly ball 20%
// PLAYER DNA
HR signature matrix hasn't been computed for this player yet. The weekly cron refreshes every Tuesday — check back if this player has joined the top-60 HR cohort.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-09-15 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 3-for-5 · 2 RBI 2026-09-14 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 0-for-4 · 2 K 2026-09-13 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 SB · 1 K 2026-09-12 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1-for-3 · 1 R 2026-09-11 3 0 0 0 0 2 0 0-for-1 · 1 R · 2 BB 2026-09-09 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 2-for-3 · 1 SB 2026-09-08 3 2 0 0 1 0 1 2-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 1 K 2026-09-07 4 1 0 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-09-06 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0-for-3 2026-09-05 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 2-for-4 · 2 HR · 3 RBI · 2 R
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Christian Koss across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.