← BACK TO SLATE Tonight's top play
Hits OVER 0.5 +10.7% edge model 71% · grade S
Why: strong vs the Four-Seam (27% usage, .364 xwOBA).
Verdict one call per prop — does the model agree with recent reality? Prop Pick Model Edge L10 Verdict Hits OVER 0.5 71% +10.7% 70% STRONG Home Runs OVER 0.5 13% +1.8% 20% CAUTION
Our track record settled S/A/B picks on Travis Bazzana, by confidence tier Tier Record Hit rate ROI S 4-1 80% +104.0% A 3-1 75% +35.5% B 3-3 50% +8.5%
Combined 10-5 · n=15 · ROI +47.5% · avg CLV -0.2 pts · beat close 18%
Matchup Travis Bazzana (LHB) vs Anthony Kay LHP favors batter favors pitcher Anthony Kay LHP · season · 84.9 IP · 365 BF
Travis Bazzana hitting
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO HR BB% K% Season 52-180 .289 .517 .228 9 13.0% 21.1% vs LHP 14-65 .215 .338 .123 2 13.3% 30.8%
Pitch-type matchup Anthony Kay's arsenal × how Travis Bazzana hits it · since 2025 · TOP = batter's spot Anthony Kay throws
Pitch Usage Velo Whiff xwOBA TOP Four-Seam27% 95.7 16% .461 Sweeper 20% 82.5 31% .315 Cutter 19% 90.8 16% .393 Sinker 18% 94.8 14% .405 Changeup 14% 85.7 23% .306 Slider 2% 84.2 33% .313
Travis Bazzana vs each
Pitch Seen Whiff xwOBA EV TOP Four-Seam160 13% .364 91.9 Sweeper 24 25% .248 64.9 Cutter 30 18% .306 93.1 Sinker 69 17% .342 93.5 Changeup 55 41% .300 86.7 Slider 71 40% .479 79.7
xwOBA = expected wOBA from exit velo + launch angle. Green favors the batter, red favors the pitcher.
Hit-rate history per-game results vs the line · green = over · red = under Hits70% Total Bases40% Home Runs20% Singles50% Doubles20% Triples0% Strikeouts60% Walks60% RBIs30% Runs Scored60% Hits + Runs + RBIs70% Stolen Bases20%
70% 7/10 · L10 · avg 1.1
Our model 71% OVER +10.7% edge S
0 vNYY 06-09 1 vNYY 06-10 0 vDET 06-12 1 vDET 06-13 0 @MIL 06-16 1 @MIL 06-17 1 @MIL 06-18 2 @HOU 06-19 4 @HOU 06-20 1 @HOU 06-21
L5 100% 5/5 L10 70% 7/10 L20 55% 11/20 2026 62% 34/55 2025 50% 1/2
Recent form per-game over the last 10 Avg PA 4.2 Plate Appearances avg 4.2
5 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 Total Bases avg 2.2
0 1 0 1 0 2 4 3 10 1 Home Runs avg 0.3
0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 Strikeouts avg 0.8
2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 2
Tonight's lines 2026-06-22 · every line we grade — bet any, not just the headline · BEST = best edge · Move = open→now (CLV once settled) Doubles + Triples
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — PASS 10% — +500 -0.7 —
Hits
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER S 71% +10.7% -154 +0.3 Sign in 1.5 OVER A 29% +5.4% +300 +0.0 Sign in 2.5 OVER PASS 5% -2.2% +1200 +0.0 Sign in
Home Runs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track BEST 0.5OVER PASS 13% +1.8% +800 +0.0 Sign in
RBIs
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 9% — +273 +0.7 — 1.5 — PASS 6% — +900 +0.0 —
Singles
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 0.5 — S 55% — +120 +0.0 — 1.5 — PASS 13% — +550 +0.0 —
Total Bases
Line Side Grade Model Edge Odds Move Track 1.5 — A 43% — +170 +0.0 —
Same-game parlay pick 2+ — we price the correlation the book won't -154 +300 +1200 +800
Price legs
Splits Career n=207 PA · 2026-03-15 → 2026-06-20
Split H-AB BA SLG ISO 2B 3B HR BB K% Season
2026 season
52-180 .289 .517 .228 12 1 9 27 21.1% vs LHP
left-handed pitching
14-65 .215 .338 .123 2 0 2 10 30.8% vs RHP
right-handed pitching
38-115 .330 .617 .287 10 1 7 17 15.7% Last 15 days
recent form
10-38 .263 .553 .289 2 0 3 9 21.1%
xStats luck
xwOBA 0.313
wOBA 0.386
delta +0.073 hot
n=207 PA
Spray chart 144 balls in play since 2025 All vLHP vRHP
Match Anthony Kay's mix Balls in play 144
HR rate 6.3%
Hard-hit (95+) 41%
Avg exit velo 88.9 mph
Ground ball 42%
Line drive 20%
Fly ball 31%
// PLAYER DNA
No statistically significant HR signature found at current sample size. We won't fabricate a pattern — most hitters need at least a half-season of data before factor lifts stabilize.
Last 10 games Per-game outcomes — most recent first.
Date PA H 2B 3B HR BB K Outcomes 2026-06-21 4 1 0 0 0 0 2 1-for-4 · 1 RBI · 2 K 2026-06-20 4 4 0 0 2 0 0 4-for-4 · 2 HR · 5 RBI · 3 R 2026-06-19 4 2 1 0 0 0 1 2-for-4 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 K 2026-06-18 5 1 0 0 1 2 0 1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1 RBI · 1 R · 2 BB 2026-06-17 4 1 1 0 0 1 0 1-for-3 · 1 2B · 1 R · 1 BB 2026-06-16 4 0 0 0 0 1 0 0-for-3 · 1 BB 2026-06-13 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-12 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 0-for-4 · 1 K 2026-06-10 4 1 0 0 0 1 1 1-for-3 · 1 R · 1 SB · 1 BB · 1 K 2026-06-09 5 0 0 0 0 1 2 0-for-4 · 1 BB · 2 K
Nearest neighbors Top 10 hitters most similar to Travis Bazzana across 38 features. Comp Lab uses these for small-sample BvP matchups.
Comp data temporarily unavailable.
